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COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?

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The opening of the capital account was one of the important structural reforms implemented by Argentina. This liberalization increased the linkage of the real economy with the changing conditions of the international financial markets. In particular, recent data show a clear relation between interest rates and the business cycle on the one hand, and sovereign spreads on the other. In order to understand better these linkages, it is necessary to analyze the determinants of these spreads also known as country risk. Using monthly data for the period 1994 to 1998, we find that this spread is explained by: 1) growth expectations, 2) fiscal deficits, 3) the debt service to export ratio and its growth rate, 4) contagion effects, 5) external shocks including movements of international interest rates, and 6) political noise. Based on these findings, we offer a discussion of some of the policies that should be implemented in order for the spreads to start declining and for the country to eventually reach an "investment grade" rating for its sovereign bonds.

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  • Julio Nogués & Martín Grandes, 2001. "COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 125-162, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:4:y:2001:n:1:p:125-162
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread and its Determinants," Borradores de Economia 315, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres Trespalacios, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002337, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Paul R. Bergin & Òscar Jordà, 2017. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 14, pages 387-415 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Sy-Hoa HO, 2015. "Long-run determinants of sovereign bond index in emerging market: New evidence from asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through," Documents de recherche 15-02, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    5. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2012. "Macroeconomic environment, country risk and stock market performance: Evidence for Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1666-1678.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "The EMBI in Latin America: Fractional Integration, Non-linearities and Breaks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1524, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Mariana Felix Teixeira & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Walter Lee Ness, 2008. "Determinant Factors of Brazilian Country Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Specific Country Risk," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 49-67.
    8. Martin Grandes & Helmut Reisen, 2003. "Hard Peg versus Soft Float. A Tale of Two Latin-American Countries," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1057-1090.
    9. Eichler, Stefan & Maltritz, Dominik, 2013. "The term structure of sovereign default risk in EMU member countries and its determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1810-1816.
    10. K.P., Prabheesh, 2013. "Optimum international reserves and sovereign risk: Evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 76-86.
    11. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2007. "On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 43-54.
    12. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2013. "Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5275-5284.
    13. Bundala, Ntogwa, 2012. "Do Economic Growth, Human Development and Political Stability favour sovereign Creditworthiness of a Country? A Cross Country Survey on Developed and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 47626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2014. "Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 224-234.
    15. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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