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Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty

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  • Maltritz, Dominik
  • Molchanov, Alexander

Abstract

We analyze the economic and political determinants of country credit risk in both developed and emerging economies by using sovereign yield spreads as risk indicators. We document a high degree of model uncertainty and apply Bayesian Model Averaging to deal with this issue. GDP growth and external debt to GDP ratio are highly likely to influence default risk in emerging and developed economies. Inflation, import growth, openness, and trade freedom are additionally relevant in developed economies, whereas developing countries' default risk is also influenced by debt service ratio, history of recent defaults, and the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2014. "Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 224-234.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:224-234
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2013.05.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    2. Blau, Benjamin M. & Roseman, Brian S., 2014. "The reaction of European credit default swap spreads to the U.S. credit rating downgrade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-141.
    3. Erdem, Orhan & Varli, Yusuf, 2014. "Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-57.
    4. Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2014. "The determinants of sovereign default: A sensitivity analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 300-318.
    5. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers, 2018. "Sub-Saharan African Eurobond yields: What really matters beyond global factors?," BeFinD Working Papers 0123, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    6. Suh, Sangwon, 2015. "Measuring sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-65.
    7. repec:eee:glofin:v:36:y:2018:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lu, Yang-Cheng & Wei, Yu-Chen & Chang, Tsang-Yao, 2015. "The effects and applicability of financial media reports on corporate default ratings," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 69-87.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Model Averaging; Default risk;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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