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Climate conditions, credit risk cycles, and technological progress: Evidence from China

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  • Chen, KanXiang
  • Teng, Fangfei
  • Razzaq, Asif
  • Li, Chengnan

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial differentiation of credit risk related to global climate change in 30 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2020. We utilize geodetector techniques to explore the effects of five critical factors on credit risk: technological progress, economic pressure, climate change, financial management, and the ecological environment. The findings indicate significant spatial variance in credit risk across China. Per capita income, unemployment rate, annual extreme temperatures, energy consumption per capita, financial accumulation, patent applications, and number of research and development personnel have strong explanatory power for credit risk, whereas technological progress increases significantly over time. Furthermore, this study finds that regions in China, where climate change affects credit risk, underwent spatial and temporal transfers from south to north from 2015 to 2020. In this process, climate factors affect credit risk directly. This study suggests that regional policies are subject to variance in climate change, credit risks, and economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, KanXiang & Teng, Fangfei & Razzaq, Asif & Li, Chengnan, 2025. "Climate conditions, credit risk cycles, and technological progress: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:210:y:2025:i:c:s0040162524006917
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123893
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