IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gpe/wpaper/17633.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate change, financial stability and monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Dafermos, Yannis
  • Nikolaidi, Maria
  • Galanis, Giorgos

Abstract

Using a stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model, we analyse (i) the effects of climate change on financial stability and (ii) the financial and global warming implications of a green QE programme. Emphasis is placed on the impact of climate change damages on the price of financial assets and the financial position of firms and banks. The model is estimated and calibrated using global data and simulations are conducted for the period 2015-2115. Four key results arise. First, by destroying the capital of firms and reducing their profitability, climate change is likely to gradually deteriorate the liquidity of firms, leading to a higher rate of default that could harm both the financial and the non-financial corporate sector. Second, climate change damages can lead to a portfolio reallocation that can cause a gradual decline in the price of corporate bonds. Third, financial instability might adversely affect credit expansion and the investment in green capital, with adverse feedback effects on climate change. Fourth, the implementation of a green QE programme can reduce climate-induced financial instability and restrict global warming. The effectiveness of this programme depends positively on the responsiveness of green investment to changes in bond yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2017. "Climate change, financial stability and monetary policy," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 17633, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:gpe:wpaper:17633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/17633/7/17633%20Dafermos_Nikolaidi%20and%20Galanis%20%282017%29%20revised.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2009. "Testing for the presence of some features of increasing returns to adoption factors in energy system dynamics: An analysis via the learning curve approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1195-1212, February.
    2. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    3. Martin L. Weitzman, 2012. "GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(2), pages 221-244, March.
    4. Campiglio, Emanuele, 2016. "Beyond carbon pricing: The role of banking and monetary policy in financing the transition to a low-carbon economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 220-230.
    5. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2017. "A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 191-207.
    6. Klomp, Jeroen, 2014. "Financial fragility and natural disasters: An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 180-192.
    7. William D. Nordhaus, 2016. "Projections and uncertainties about climate change in an era of minimal climate policies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2057, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Carlota Perez, 2009. "The double bubble at the turn of the century: technological roots and structural implications," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 779-805, July.
    9. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    10. repec:eee:ecolec:v:147:y:2018:i:c:p:383-398 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    12. Dietz, Simon & Bowen, Alex & Dixon, Charlie & Gradwell, Philip, 2016. "‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66226, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. repec:eee:ecolec:v:146:y:2018:i:c:p:740-748 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Barker, Terry & Ekins, Paul & Foxon, Tim, 2007. "The macro-economic rebound effect and the UK economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4935-4946, October.
    15. Tian Tang & David Popp, 2016. "The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China's CDM Wind Projects," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 195-222, January.
    16. Willi Haas & Fridolin Krausmann & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Markus Heinz, 2015. "How Circular is the Global Economy?: An Assessment of Material Flows, Waste Production, and Recycling in the European Union and the World in 2005," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(5), pages 765-777, October.
    17. Caiani, Alessandro & Godin, Antoine & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Gallegati, Mauro & Kinsella, Stephen & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 375-408.
    18. Assenza, Tiziana & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Grazzini, Jakob, 2015. "Emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 5-28.
    19. S. M. Ali Abbas & Laura Blattner & Mark De Broeck & Asmaa A ElGanainy & Malin Hu, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Composition in Advanced Economies; A Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 14/162, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dafermos, Yannis & Monnin, Pierre & Ryan-Collins, Josh & Schotten, Guido & Tanaka, Misa, 2018. "Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Jones, Glenn A. & Warner, Kevin J., 2016. "The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 206-212.
    22. Michel Aglietta & Etienne Espagne, 2016. "Climate and finance systemic risks, more than an analogy? The climate fragility hypothesis," Working Papers 2016-10, CEPII research center.
    23. Pierre Monnin & Alexander Barkawi, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Sustainability. The Case of Bangladesh," Discussion Notes 1501, Council on Economic Policies.
    24. Peter Skott & Ben Zipperer, 2012. "An empirical evaluation of three post-Keynesian models," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 277-307.
    25. Skidmore, Mark, 2001. "Risk, natural disasters, and household savings in a life cycle model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 15-34, January.
    26. Robert A. Blecker, 2002. "Distribution, Demand and Growth in Neo-Kaleckian Macro-Models," Chapters,in: The Economics of Demand-Led Growth, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Godley, Wynne, 1999. "Money and Credit in a Keynesian Model of Income Determination," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 393-411, July.
    28. Carlota Perez, 2010. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 185-202, January.
    29. Plantinga, Auke & Scholtens, Bert, 2016. "The financial impact of divestment from fossil fuels," Research Report 16005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    30. Jakab, Zoltan & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds – and why this matters," Bank of England working papers 529, Bank of England.
    31. repec:eee:ecolec:v:144:y:2018:i:c:p:228-243 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. repec:eee:ecolec:v:149:y:2018:i:c:p:239-253 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Batten,, Sandra & Sowerbutts, Rhiannon & Tanaka, Misa, 2016. "Let’s talk about the weather: the impact of climate change on central banks," Bank of England working papers 603, Bank of England.
    34. Julie Rozenberg & Stéphane Hallegatte & Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2013. "Funding low-carbon investments in the absence of a carbon tax," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 134-141, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clara I. González & Soledad Núñez, 2019. "Mercados, entidades financieras y bancos centrales ante el cambio climático: retos y oportunidades," Working Papers 2019-06, FEDEA.
    2. D’Orazio, Paola & Popoyan, Lilit, 2019. "Fostering green investments and tackling climate-related financial risks: Which role for macroprudential policies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 25-37.
    3. Yannis Dafermos & Maria Nikolaidi, 2019. "Fiscal policy and ecological sustainability: A post-Keynesian perspective," Working Papers PKWP1912, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Dunz, Nepomuk & Naqvi, Asjad & Monasterolo, Irene, 2019. "Climate Transition Risk, Climate Sentiments, and Financial Stability in a Stock-Flow Consistent approach," Ecological Economic Papers 6911, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. repec:pal:compes:v:60:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1057_s41294-018-0055-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:ecolec:v:162:y:2019:i:c:p:108-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Maria Nikolaidi, 2017. "Three decades of modelling Minsky: what we have learned and the way forward," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 222-237, September.
    8. repec:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:62-:d:242029 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:bla:chinae:v:26:y:2018:i:6:p:116-142 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:ecolec:v:161:y:2019:i:c:p:50-60 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ecological macroeconomics; stock-flow consistent modelling; climate change; financial stability; green quantitative easing;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gpe:wpaper:17633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nadine Edwards). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/pegreuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.