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The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus

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Listed:
  • Jones, Glenn A.
  • Warner, Kevin J.

Abstract

World population is projected to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, yet nearly one-fifth of the world's current 7.2 billion live without access to electricity. Though universal energy access is desirable, a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage is required before mid-century if global warming is to be limited to <2°C. Here we quantify the changes in the global energy mix necessary to address population and climate change under two energy-use scenarios, finding that renewable energy production (9% in 2014) must comprise 87–94% of global energy consumption by 2100. Our study suggests >50% renewable energy needs to occur by 2028 in a <2°C warming scenario, but not until 2054 in an unconstrained energy use scenario. Given the required rate and magnitude of this transition to renewable energy, it is unlikely that the <2°C goal can be met. Focus should be placed on expanding renewable energy as quickly as possible in order to limit warming to 2.5–3°C.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Glenn A. & Warner, Kevin J., 2016. "The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 206-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:93:y:2016:i:c:p:206-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.044
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