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Bridging socioeconomic pathways of CO2 emission and credit risk

Author

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  • Florian Bourgey

    (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'Ecole polytechnique - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Bloomberg L.P. Quantitative Finance Research - Bloomberg L.P.)

  • Emmanuel Gobet

    (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'Ecole polytechnique - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ying Jiao

    (LSAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon, ISFA - Institut de Science Financière et d'Assurances)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of transition risk on a firm's low-carbon production. As the world is facing global climate changes, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has set the idealized carbon-neutral scenario around 2050. In the meantime, many carbon reduction scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been proposed in the literature for different production sectors in more comprehensive socioeconomic context. In this paper, we consider, on the one hand, a firm that aims to optimize its emission level under the double objectives of maximizing its production profit and respecting the emission mitigation scenarios. Solving the penalized optimization problem provides the optimal emission according to a given SSP benchmark. On the other hand, such transitions affect the firm's credit risk. We model the default time by using the structural default approach. We are particularly concerned with how the adopted strategies by following different SSPs scenarios may influence the firm's default probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Bourgey & Emmanuel Gobet & Ying Jiao, 2022. "Bridging socioeconomic pathways of CO2 emission and credit risk," Post-Print hal-03458299, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03458299
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-05135-y
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03458299v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, KanXiang & Teng, Fangfei & Razzaq, Asif & Li, Chengnan, 2025. "Climate conditions, credit risk cycles, and technological progress: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).

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    Keywords

    Climate risk; transition risk; credit risk; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; carbon emission reduction; optimal production profit;
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