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Modelling country default risk as a latent variable: a multiple indicators multiple causes approach

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  • D. Maltritz
  • A. Bühn
  • S. Eichler

Abstract

We study the determinants of country default risk by applying a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. This accounts for the fact that country default risk is an unobservable variable. Whereas existing (regression-based) approaches typically use only one of several possible country default risk indicators as the dependent variable, the MIMIC model enables us to consider several indicators at once. The simultaneous consideration of sovereign yield spreads and Standard and Poor (S&P) ratings may help to improve the identification of the latent country default risk. Our results confirm most of the literature's main findings regarding important determinants of country default risk, refute others and provide new evidence to controversial questions.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Maltritz & A. Bühn & S. Eichler, 2012. "Modelling country default risk as a latent variable: a multiple indicators multiple causes approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(36), pages 4679-4688, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:36:p:4679-4688
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2010.528369
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    1. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread , Credit Rating And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," Borradores de Economia 2336, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres, 2004. "Determinants of Spread and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt:A Panel Data Study," Borradores de Economia 295, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    5. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity: Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 2001/002, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    7. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Magnusson, Leandro M. & Tarverdi, Yashar, 2020. "Measuring governance: Why do errors matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Maurizio Carpita & Enrico Ciavolino & Mariangela Nitti, 2019. "The MIMIC–CUB Model for the Prediction of the Economic Public Opinions in Europe," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 287-305, November.

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