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Modelling country default risk as a latent variable: a multiple indicators multiple causes approach

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  • D. Maltritz
  • A. Bühn
  • S. Eichler

Abstract

We study the determinants of country default risk by applying a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. This accounts for the fact that country default risk is an unobservable variable. Whereas existing (regression-based) approaches typically use only one of several possible country default risk indicators as the dependent variable, the MIMIC model enables us to consider several indicators at once. The simultaneous consideration of sovereign yield spreads and Standard and Poor (S&P) ratings may help to improve the identification of the latent country default risk. Our results confirm most of the literature's main findings regarding important determinants of country default risk, refute others and provide new evidence to controversial questions.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Maltritz & A. Bühn & S. Eichler, 2012. "Modelling country default risk as a latent variable: a multiple indicators multiple causes approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(36), pages 4679-4688, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:44:y:2012:i:36:p:4679-4688
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2010.528369
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers, 2018. "Sub-Saharan African Eurobond yields: What really matters beyond global factors?," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62.
    2. Maurizio Carpita & Enrico Ciavolino & Mariangela Nitti, 2019. "The MIMIC–CUB Model for the Prediction of the Economic Public Opinions in Europe," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 287-305, November.
    3. Magnusson, Leandro M. & Tarverdi, Yashar, 2020. "Measuring governance: Why do errors matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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