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Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

In: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies

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  • Stijn Claessens
  • Daniel Oks
  • Rossana Polastri

Abstract

The capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU) represent a relatively small, albeit growing share of capital flows to developing countries. Taking all flows together, the total net flows to these 25 countries (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan) were about $44 billion in 1996 or about 1/8 of aggregate net flows to all developing countries. These countries accounted, however, for about 20 and 22 percent respectively of all developing countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and exports in 1996. As a fraction of their GDP, total inflows were consequently smaller than for many other developing countries, and averaged about 5.4 percent over the 1990-96 periods. In more recent years, there has been a more rapid inflow of private capital, as reform efforts have consolidated and economic prospects improved and, for some countries, as European Union (EU) integration became a possibility for the near future. For some countries, short-term capital has recently become an important source of external financing. Since most countries have been late comers to the phenomenon of large private capital inflows, they have not experienced much of the overheating phenomena which have affected other developing countries in the past (Latin America) and recently (East Asia). The paper is organized as follows. Section II briefly describes the facts on capital flows to these countries. Section III discusses important links and relationships between macroeconomic variables and the capital flows, including some of the basic motivations, and causes for capital flows. Section IV describes and analyzes the policy framework and policy responses in those countries that received the bulk of capital flows. Econometric tests are presented in
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Suggested Citation

  • Stijn Claessens & Daniel Oks & Rossana Polastri, 2000. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 299-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:6171
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    1. Carlos Andrés Amaya G. & Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Investment Flows Into Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 2334, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Iwasaki, Ichiro & 岩﨑, 一郎 & Tokunaga, Masahiro, 2019. "The Determinants and Macroeconomic Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," CEI Working Paper Series 2019-8, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2000. "Measuring real economic effects of bailouts: historical perspectives on how countries in financial distress have fared with and without bailouts," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-167, December.
    4. Alina Kudina & Oleksandr Lozovyi, 2007. "Determinants of Portfolio Flows into CIS Countries," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0354, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    6. Kashif Mansori, 2003. "Following in their Footsteps: Comparing Interest Parity Conditions in Central European Economies to the Euro Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1020, CESifo.
    7. Fidel Pérez Sebastián & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2005. "Sovereign Risk, Fdi Spillovers, And Economic Growth," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-27, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    8. Oana Cristina Popovici & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2014. "FDI theories. A location-based approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(53), pages 3-24, September.
    9. Michal Brzozowski, 2006. "Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment: Consequences of EMU Enlargement," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 5-24, February.
    10. Masahiro Tokunaga & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2017. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies: A Meta-analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2771-2831, December.
    11. Carlos Andrés Amaya & Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants of Investment Flows into Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 313, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Zsóka Kóczán, 2018. "Late to the Game? Capital Flows to the Western Balkans," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 20(2), pages 33-67, December.
    13. Claudia Buch, 1999. "Capital mobility and EU enlargement," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(4), pages 629-656, December.
    14. M. Taner Yigit & Ali M. Kutan, 2004. "Effects of Transition and Political Instability on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows : Central Europe and the Balkans," Working Papers 0407, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    15. Schwieren, C.A.A. & Vendrik, M.C.M. & de Gijsel, P.P., 2004. "The power of competition: reducing or reinforcing discrimination?," Research Memorandum 041, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    16. Jaap Bos & Mindel van de Laar, 2004. "Explaining Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe: an Extended Gravity Approach," DNB Working Papers 008, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Sõrg, Mart, 2007. "Estonia's high current account deficit has special reasons," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 13/2007, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    18. Ele Reiljan, 2001. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows in Estonia," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, in: Urmas Varblane (ed.), Foreign Direct Investments in the Estonian Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 2, pages 31-90, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    19. Bonin, John & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Financial sector development in transition economies : Lessons from the first decade," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    20. Talley, Samuel & Giugale, Marcelo M. & Polastri, Rossana, 1998. "Capital inflow reversals, banking stability, and prudential regulation in Central and Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2023, The World Bank.
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    22. Tokunaga, Masahiro & Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2014. "Transition and FDI: A Meta-Analysis of the FDI Determinants in Transition Economies," RRC Working Paper Series 47, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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