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Identification of ‘pull’ & ‘push’ factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy

  • Korap, Levent

In this paper, the determinants of the portfolio based capital flows are examined for the Turkish economy. Following the structural vector autoregression methodology, the estimation results reveal that the ‘push’ factors based on the external developments for the Turkish economy have a dominant role in explaining the behavior of the portfolio flows. Further, the domestic real interest rate as one of the main ‘pull’ factors has been found in a negative dynamic relationship with the portfolio flows. This result is attributed to that the dynamic course of the portfolio flows should not be related to the excess return possibilities of the real interest structure of the Turkish economy.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24275/1/MPRA_paper_24275.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24275.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Publication status: Published in Doğuş University Journal 11.2(2010): pp. 223-232
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24275
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  1. Kim, Yoonbai, 2000. "Causes of capital flows in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-253, April.
  2. E. Murat Ucer & C. John McDermott & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate; The Case of Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/1, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
  4. C. Emre Alper & Ismail Saglam, 2001. "The Transmission of a Sudden Capital Outflow: Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 2001/09, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  5. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "Do Capital Flows Improve Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets? : The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(4), pages 20-32, July.
  6. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens,Constantijn A. & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1993. "Equity and bond flows to Asia and Latin America : the role of global and country factors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1160, The World Bank.
  7. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994. "The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1312, The World Bank.
  8. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Yung-Hsiang Ying & Yoonbai Kim, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows: The Case of Korea and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 954-968, April.
  11. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
  12. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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