Exogenous characteristics of short-term capital flows: can they be under control? evidence from Turkey
In our paper, we give an essay trying to explore whether short-term capital flows can affect and/or be affected by some main domestic macroeconomic indicators called ‘pull’ factors such as real effective exchange rate, trade balance, real income growth process, domestic inflation and real interest structure for the case of Turkish economy. Our estimation results employing some contemporaneous estimation techniques of unrestricted dynamic vector autoregression (VAR) models reveal that short-term capital flows have in fact an important role on the ‘pull’ factors in the sense that inflows appreciate the real effective exchange rate and in turn deteriorate the trade balance, encourage the real income growth, and decrease the real interest rates. But we could not find any significant effects of the ‘pull’ factors on the capital flows.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 1.2007(2007): pp. 1-16|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1991. "Is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of LDCs?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 403-407, August.
- Cem Saatcioglu & Levent Korap, 2006. "Determinants of Turkish Inflation," Working Papers 2006/7, Turkish Economic Association.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Chuhan, Punam & Claessens,Constantijn A. & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1993. "Equity and bond flows to Asia and Latin America : the role of global and country factors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1160, The World Bank.
- Yung-Hsiang Ying & Yoonbai Kim, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows: The Case of Korea and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 954-968, April.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001. "Nominal and real effective exchange rates of middle eastern countries and their trade performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 103-111.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993.
"Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
- Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993.
"Af1uencia de capital y apreciacion del tipo de cambio real en America Latina: E1 papel de los factores externos
[Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of Ex," MPRA Paper 13681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005.
"Growing up with capital flows,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January.
- Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994.
"The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1312, The World Bank.
- Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
- Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
- Aysu Insel & Nesrin Sungur, 2003. "Sermaye Akýmlarýnýn Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneði-1989:III-1999:IV," Working Papers 2003/8, Turkish Economic Association.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004.
"When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies,"
13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, Yoonbai, 2000. "Causes of capital flows in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-253, April.
- Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
- Zhaohui Chen & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; A Theoretical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 97/13, International Monetary Fund.
- Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "Do Capital Flows Improve Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets? : The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(4), pages 20-32, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.