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What kind of capital flows does the IMF catalyze and when?

  • Javier Díaz-Cassou

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Alicia García-Herrero

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Luis Molina

    ()

    (Banco de España)

Using empirical analysis, complemented with case studies, this paper studies under which circumstances IMF programs manage to catalyze private capital flows into the countries concerned. While we found no catalysis in general, the situation differs very much depending on the type of capital flow and the program's objective. On the first, the Fund seems to be doing a better job at attracting FDI than shorter-term flows, particularly cross-border bank lending. On the second, programs oriented towards crisis prevention or with longer-term objectives, also perform better in terms of catalysis. In turn, programs oriented towards crisis resolution actually discourage private capital flows. This worrisome finding, given the importance of crisis resolution for the Fund, is mitigated for FDI inflows in the case studies analysed.Finally, all case studies point to the role of conditionality –as opposed to signalling and liquidity– as the strongest channel through which IMF catalyzes private flows.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/06/Fic/dt0617e.pdf
File Function: First version, Month 2006
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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0617.

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Length: 72 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0617
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  1. Zhaohui Chen & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; A Theoretical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 97/13, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
  3. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 03/223, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Leonardo Leiderman & Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects," Research Department Publications 4002, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2000. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 7885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-20, June.
  8. Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank.
  9. Marchesi, Silvia, 2003. "Adoption of an IMF programme and debt rescheduling. An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 403-423, April.
  10. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
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