IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v68y2018i3p245-267.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trick or Treat? The Effect of IMF Programmes on Mobilising FDI in CESEE Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Marijana Andrijic

    (Ministry of Finance, Republic of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Tajana Barbic

    (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of IMF programmes on foreign direct investment in the countries of Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe. We use original dataset for 17 countries in the region in the period from 1990 to 2013. In order to address selection bias stemming from the fact that countries are not randomly assigned to participation in IMF arrangements in a given year and controlling also for the unobservable factors influencing both IMF participation and foreign investment we employ treatment effect model. The robustness of our findings was additionally assessed by fixed effects instrumental variable panel and Arellano Bond dynamic panel estimation. Irrespective of the method used and model specification, we find that IMF arrangements negatively affect foreign direct investment in the CESEE region.

Suggested Citation

  • Marijana Andrijic & Tajana Barbic, 2018. "Trick or Treat? The Effect of IMF Programmes on Mobilising FDI in CESEE Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(3), pages 245-267, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:3:p:245-267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1409_245_266_andrijic_barbic__final_issue_3_2018.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marijana Ivanov & Marina Tkalec & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "The Determinants of Financial Euroization in a Post-Transition Country: Do Threshold Effects Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 230-251, July.
    2. Axel Dreher, 2009. "IMF conditionality: theory and evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 233-267, October.
    3. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957.
    4. Martin S. Edwards, 2005. "Investor Responses to IMF Program Suspensions: Is Noncompliance Costly?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 86(4), pages 857-873, December.
    5. Campos, Nauro F. & Kinoshita, Yuko, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms: Evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 3332, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    7. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    8. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2008. "Catalysing private capital flows and IMF programs: some remaining questions," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 37-43.
    9. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2004. "The Catalytic Effect of Lending by the International Financial Institutions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: International Finance and the Developing Economies, chapter 12, pages 204-226, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Polak, J.J., 1991. "The Changing Nature of IMF Conditionality," Princeton Studies in International Economics 184, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    11. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2012. "Do the IMF and the World Bank influence voting in the UN General Assembly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 363-397, April.
    12. Dane Rowlands, 2001. "The Response of Other Lenders to the IMF," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 531-546, August.
    13. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413.
    14. Rowlands, Dane, 2001. "The Response of Other Lenders to the IMF," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 531-546, August.
    15. Graham Bird, 2007. "The Imf: A Bird'S Eye View Of Its Role And Operations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 683-745, September.
    16. Nadja Walch & Julia Wörz, 2012. "The Impact of Country Risk Ratings and of the Status of EU Integration on FDI Inflows in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-26.
    17. Mr. Pierre Dhonte, 1997. "Conditionality as an Instrument of Borrower Credibility," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1997/002, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Nancy Brune & Geoffrey Garrett & Bruce Kogut, 2004. "The International Monetary Fund and the Global Spread of Privatization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-1.
    19. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    20. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969, December.
    21. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2009. "The IMF's role in mobilizing private capital flows: are there grounds for catalytic conversion?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1705-1708.
    22. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
    23. Saul Estrin & Milica Uvalic, 2013. "Foreign direct investment into transition economies: Are the Balkans different?," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 64, European Institute, LSE.
    24. Oberdabernig, Doris A., 2013. "Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 113-142.
    25. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    26. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Alicia García-Herrero & Luis Molina, 2006. "What kind of capital flows does the IMF catalyze and when?," Working Papers 0617, Banco de España.
    27. Martin Steinwand & Randall Stone, 2008. "The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 123-149, June.
    28. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 307-340, September.
    29. Rodrik, Dani, 1995. "Why is there Multilateral Lending?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2007. "Introduction to Foreign Direct Investment: Analysis of Aggregate Flows," Introductory Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment: Analysis of Aggregate Flows, Princeton University Press.
    31. Peter Backé & Sonsoles Gallego & Sándor Gardó & Reiner Martin & Luis Molina & José Maria Serena, 2010. "How Did the Global Financial Crisis Affect the CESEE Region and Latin America? – A Comparative Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 49-66.
    32. Jacques J. Polak, 1991. "The Changing Nature of IMF Conditionality," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 41, OECD Publishing.
    33. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2000. "The catalyzing role of policy-based lending by the IMF and the World Bank: fact or fiction?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(7), pages 951-973.
    34. Saul Estrin & Milica Uvalic, 2013. "Foreign direct investment into transition economies: Are the Balkans different?," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 4, London School of Economics / European Institute.
    35. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2006. "Catalysing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programmes Work as Commitment Devices?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 843-867, July.
    36. Valerija Botrić & Lorena Škuflić, 2006. "Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 13(2), pages 359-377, July.
    37. Nathan M. Jensen, 2004. "Crisis, Conditions, and Capital," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 194-210, April.
    38. Koen J. M. van der Veer & Eelke de Jong, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programmes: Stimulating Capital to Non-defaulting Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 375-395, April.
    39. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    40. Jarko Fidrmuc & Reiner Martin, 2011. "FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 70-89.
    41. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2008. "Catalysing private capital flows and IMF programs: some remaining questions," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 37-43.
    42. Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard, 2011. "Economic Policies and FDI Inflows to Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/192, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Byungwon Woo, 2013. "Conditional on Conditionality: IMF Program Design and Foreign Direct Investment," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 292-315, July.
    44. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "Do IMF Programmes Have a Catalytic Effect on Other International Capital Flows?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 229-249.
    45. Estrin, Saul & Uvalic, Milica, 2013. "Foreign direct investment into transition economies: are the Balkans different?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    46. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "IMF Lending in Times of Crisis: Political Influences and Crisis Prevention," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1944-1969.
    47. Bevan, Alan A. & Estrin, Saul, 2004. "The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 775-787, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molly Bauer & Cesi Cruz & Benjamin Graham, 2012. "Democracies only: When do IMF agreements serve as a seal of approval?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 33-58, March.
    2. Luca Papi & Andrea F Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2015. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(3), pages 644-691, November.
    3. Gehring, Kai & Lang, Valentin, 2020. "Stigma or cushion? IMF programs and sovereign creditworthiness," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Chungshik Moon & Byungwon Woo, 2022. "Curse of friendship: IMF programme, friendship with the United States and foreign direct investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2188-2221, July.
    5. Graham Bird, 2007. "The Imf: A Bird'S Eye View Of Its Role And Operations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 683-745, September.
    6. Dreher, Axel & Walter, Stefanie, 2010. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Thomas Stubbs & Bernhard Reinsberg & Alexander Kentikelenis & Lawrence King, 2020. "How to evaluate the effects of IMF conditionality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 29-73, January.
    8. Koen J. M. van der Veer & Eelke de Jong, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programmes: Stimulating Capital to Non-defaulting Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 375-395, April.
    9. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2010. "The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 73-95, March.
    10. Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq, 2015. "The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/157, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Kai Gehring & Valentin F. Lang, 2018. "Stigma or Cushion? IMF Programs and Sovereign Creditworthiness," CESifo Working Paper Series 7339, CESifo.
    12. Mr. Christian Mumssen & Yasemin Bal Gunduz & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Ms. Linda Kaltani, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term," IMF Working Papers 2013/273, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi & Laurence Allain & Giovanna Bua, 2014. "A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2014/176, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2007. "The Analysis of Catalysis: IMF Programs and Private Capital Flows," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0107, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    16. Oberdabernig, Doris A., 2013. "Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 113-142.
    17. Jorra, Markus, 2012. "The effect of IMF lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 709-725.
    18. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2011. "How soon is now? The effects of the IMF on economic reforms in Latin America," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 189-213, July.
    19. Stubbs, Thomas H. & Kentikelenis, Alexander E. & King, Lawrence P., 2016. "Catalyzing Aid? The IMF and Donor Behavior in Aid Allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 511-528.
    20. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; IMF; catalytic finance; CESEE countries; treatment effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:3:p:245-267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.