IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality

  • Doris A. Oberdabernig

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://epub.wu.ac.at/3609/3/wp144.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp144.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp144
Note: PDF Document
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria

Web page: http://www.wu.ac.at/economics/en

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ricardo Martin & Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2005. "Social Spending in IMF-supported Programs," Public Economics 0504011, EconWPA.
  2. Axel Dreher & Stefanie Walter, 2008. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises," KOF Working papers 08-186, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
  4. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "Measuring Real Economic Effects of Bailouts: Historical Perspectives on How Countries in Financial Distress Have Fared With and Without Bailouts," NBER Working Papers 7701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 307-340, September.
  6. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  7. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Which Variables Explain Decisions On Imf Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 177-213, 07.
  8. Jacques J. Polak, 1991. "The Changing Nature of IMF Conditionality," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 41, OECD Publishing.
  9. Nissanke, Machiko & Thorbecke, Erik, 2006. "Channels and policy debate in the globalization-inequality-poverty nexus," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1338-1360, August.
  10. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2001. "Trade, growth, and poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2615, The World Bank.
  11. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4373, February.
  12. Barry J. Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 06/101, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Raymond Vreeland, James, 2002. "The Effect of IMF Programs on Labor," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 121-139, January.
  14. J Harrigan & C Wang & H El-Said, 2004. "The Economic and Politics Determinants of IMF and World Bank Lending in the Middle East and North Africa," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0411, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  15. Sen, Amartya, 1979. " Issues in the Measurement of Poverty," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 81(2), pages 285-307.
  16. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  17. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 1997. "What Can New Survey Data Tell Us about Recent Changes in Distribution and Poverty?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(2), pages 357-82, May.
  18. Wood, Adrian & Ridao-Cano, Cristobal, 1999. "Skill, Trade, and International Inequality," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 89-119, January.
  19. Omotunde Johnson & Joanne Salop, 1980. "Distributional Aspects of Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries (Les programmes de stabilisation des pays en développement examinés sous l'aspect de la répartition du revenu) (Los programa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(1), pages 1-23, March.
  20. Ruben Atoyan & Patrick Conway, 2006. "Evaluating the impact of IMF programs: A comparison of matching and instrumental-variable estimators," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 99-124, June.
  21. Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2002. "Effectiveness of IMF-supported stabilization programs in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 565-587, October.
  22. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 1999. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2041, The World Bank.
  23. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957, October.
  24. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  25. Polak, J.J., 1991. "The Changing Nature of IMF Conditionality," Princeton Studies in International Economics 184, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  26. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2001. "Banks, Financial Liberalisation and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 889-910, 07.
  27. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521816755, October.
  28. Carlos Leite & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2002. "Is Growth Enough? Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction," IMF Working Papers 02/118, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Handa, Sudhanshu & King, Damien, 1997. "Structural adjustment policies, income distribution and poverty: A review of the jamaican experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 915-930, June.
  30. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2001. "Growth is good for the poor," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2587, The World Bank.
  31. Robert J Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," Departmental Working Papers 2003-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  32. Oecd, 2002. "Aid volume, channels and allocations for poverty reduction," OECD Journal on Development, OECD Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 33-46.
  33. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
  34. Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & Mecagni, Mauro & Schadler, Susan, 2000. "Evaluating the effect of IMF lending to low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 495-526, April.
  35. Paul Mosley & John Hudson & Arjan Verschoor, 2004. "Aid, Poverty Reduction and the 'New Conditionality'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F217-F243, 06.
  36. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Thomas Harr & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On US politics and IMF Lending," Discussion Papers 04-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  37. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  38. Morduch, Jonathan, 1994. "Poverty and Vulnerability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 221-25, May.
  39. Mattias Lundberg & Lyn Squire, 2003. "The simultaneous evolution of growth and inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 326-344, 04.
  40. Andrea Brandolini & Anthony B. Atkinson, 2001. "Promise and Pitfalls in the Use of "Secondary" Data-Sets: Income Inequality in OECD Countries As a Case Study," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 771-799, September.
  41. Zlata Hajro & Joseph Joyce, 2009. "A true test: do IMF programs hurt the poor?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 295-306.
  42. Bernhard G. Gunter & Marc J. Cohen & Hans Lofgren, 2005. "Analysing Macro-Poverty Linkages: An Overview," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 243-265, 05.
  43. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2012. "Do the IMF and the World Bank influence voting in the UN General Assembly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 363-397, April.
  44. James J. Heckman, 1977. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," NBER Working Papers 0177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "The IMF`s role in structural adjustment," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1999-18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  46. Sebastian Edwards & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa05-1.
  47. Nooruddin, Irfan & Simmons, Joel W., 2006. "The Politics of Hard Choices: IMF Programs and Government Spending," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(04), pages 1001-1033, October.
  48. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  49. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 2000. "Inflation and the poor," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2335, The World Bank.
  50. Kenny, Charles & Williams, David, 2001. "What Do We Know About Economic Growth? Or, Why Don't We Know Very Much?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-22, January.
  51. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources?," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  53. Loayza, Norman V. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2010. "The composition of growth matters for poverty alleviation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 137-151, September.
  54. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
  55. repec:imf:imfocp:58 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  57. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2010. "A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010," NBER Working Papers 15902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Adams, Richard Jr., 2004. "Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Estimating the Growth Elasticity of Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1989-2014, December.
  60. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? A Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 98/169, International Monetary Fund.
  61. Frederick Solt, 2009. "Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(2), pages 231-242.
  62. Bourguignon, Francois & Branson, William H. & de Melo, Jaime, 1992. "Adjustment and income distribution : A micro-macro model for counterfactual analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-39, January.
  63. Easterly, William, 2001. "The effect of International Monetary Fund and World Bank programs on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2517, The World Bank.
  64. Garuda, Gopal, 2000. "The Distributional Effects of IMF Programs: A Cross-Country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1031-1051, June.
  65. Martin Steinwand & Randall Stone, 2008. "The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 123-149, June.
  66. Nelson, Forrest D., 1984. "Efficiency of the two-step estimator for models with endogenous sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 181-196.
  67. Meschi, Elena & Vivarelli, Marco, 2009. "Trade and Income Inequality in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 287-302, February.
  68. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1998. "New ways of looking at old issues: inequality and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 259-287.
  69. Fassil Fanta & Mukti Upadhyay, 2009. "Poverty reduction, economic growth and inequality in Africa," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1791-1794.
  70. Arpac, Ozlem & Bird, Graham & Mandilaras, Alex, 2008. "Stop Interrupting: An Empirical Analysis of the Implementation of IMF Programs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1493-1513, September.
  71. Paul Cashin & Catherine A. Pattillo & Ratna Sahay & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction; Stylized Facts and an Overview of Research," IMF Working Papers 01/135, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.