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The Effect of IMF Programmes on Economic Growth in Low Income Countries: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Graham Bird
  • Dane Rowlands

Abstract

Using an LIC-specific participation model, we adopt a propensity score matching (PSM) methodology to compare economic growth performance in countries with and without IMF programmes over the period 1989–2008. Concessional programmes are found to have had a generally positive effect on economic growth for up to two years after agreements were signed. The effects are contingent on other factors including overall initial economic conditions, recent prior growth performance, aid dependency, debt, IMF resources, recent history of IMF engagement and time period. We examine the implications of the results as the IMF considers how best to support the Sustainable Development Goals.

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  • Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2017. "The Effect of IMF Programmes on Economic Growth in Low Income Countries: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2179-2196, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:53:y:2017:i:12:p:2179-2196
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2017.1279734
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    Cited by:

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    2. Doris A. Oberdabernig, 2018. "Determinants of IMF lending: How different is Sub-Saharan Africa?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 136-145.
    3. Tejesh Pradhan & Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq, 2018. "IMF-Supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2018/284, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Balima, Hippolyte W. & Sokolova, Anna, 2021. "IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    5. Claudia Maurini, 2019. "IMF programs and stigma in Emerging Market Economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1247, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Ifrah Siddique & Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Abdullah Ejaz & Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau & Toni Calugaru, 2021. "Why Do Countries Request Assistance from International Monetary Fund? An Empirical Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, March.
    7. Ayşe Y. Evrensel & Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2023. "Compliance with IMF conditions and economic growth," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4401-4420, December.
    8. Agbloyor, Elikplimi Komla & Pan, Lei & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei & Gyeke-Dako, Agyapomaa, 2023. "We are back again! What can artificial intelligence and machine learning models tell us about why countries knock at the door of the IMF?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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