IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations

  • Michael Hutchison
  • Ilan Noy

We investigate the effects of IMF stabilization programs, and the reasons behind the unusually high IMF activity and relatively low program completion rates in Latin America. We base our tests on a panel, and distinguish between IMF program approvals and completion. We find that Latin America has higher output costs of IMF programs (especially when completed), no improvement in the current account, and a much higher likelihood of program failure and recidivism than other regions. The common finding that entering into an IMF-supported program incurs real short-run costs on the economy is entirely driven by the experiences in Latin America.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 03-02.

in new window

Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:03-02
Contact details of provider: Postal: 101 Market Street, MS 1130, San Francisco, CA 94105-1579
Phone: (415) 974-3184
Fax: (415) 974-2168
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  2. repec:bla:restud:v:65:y:1998:i:2:p:261-94 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy (Neuberger), 2002. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Anna Unigovskaya & Valerie Mercer-Blackman, 2000. "Compliance with IMF Program Indicators and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/47, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November.
  7. Pastor, Manuel Jr., 1987. "The effects of IMF programs in the Third World: Debate and evidence from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 249-262, February.
  8. Axel Dreher, 2002. "The Development and Implementation of IMF and World Bank Conditionality," International Finance 0207003, EconWPA.
  9. Bird, Graham & Hussain, Mumtaz & Joyce, Joseph P., 2004. "Many happy returns? Recidivism and the IMF," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 231-251, March.
  10. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition, Credibility and the Output Costs of Disinflation Programs: An Analysis of Price Controls," NBER Working Papers 2302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Conners & Thomas A. Connors, 1979. "The apparent effects of recent IMF stabilization programs," International Finance Discussion Papers 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-20, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  13. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1998. "Fiscal discipline and the choice of a nominal anchor in stabilization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30, October.
  14. Michael M. Hutchison, 2001. "A Cure Worse Than the Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs," NBER Working Papers 8305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Joseph P. Joyce, 2001. "Time present and time past: a duration analysis of IMF program spells," Working Papers 01-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  16. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Disinflation and Fiscal Reform: A Neoclassical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Alex Mourmouras & Anna Ivanova & George C. Anayotos & Wolfgang Mayer, 2003. "What Determines the Implementation of IMF-Supported Programs?," IMF Working Papers 03/8, International Monetary Fund.
  18. repec:bla:restud:v:58:y:1991:i:2:p:277-97 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
  20. Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "The international monetary fund and the developing countries: A critical evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 7-68, January.
  21. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," Research Department Publications 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  22. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Peter Montiel, 2002. "Reform and Growth in Latin America: All Pain, No Gain?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  23. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6797, Inter-American Development Bank.
  24. Graham Bird, 2002. "The Completion Rate of IMF Programmes: What We Know, Don't Know and Need to Know," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 833-847, 06.
  25. Boughton, James M, 2000. "From Suez to Tequila: The IMF as Crisis Manager," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 273-91, January.
  26. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark M. Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
  27. Michael D. Bordo & Harold James, 2000. "The International Monetary Fund: Its Present Role in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "Measuring Real Economic Effects of Bailouts: Historical Perspectives on How Countries in Financial Distress Have Fared With and Without Bailouts," NBER Working Papers 7701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  30. Mohsin S. Khan, 1990. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fund-Supported Adjustment Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 195-231, June.
  31. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
  32. Sebastian Edwards & Julio A. Santaella, 1992. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons From the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 4047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Calderon Cesar Augusto & Chong Alberto & Loayza Norman V., 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, March.
  34. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
  35. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  36. Miguel A. Savastano & Michael Mussa, 1999. "The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 99/104, International Monetary Fund.
  37. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. repec:bla:restud:v:64:y:1997:i:4:p:605-54 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2000. "Evaluation methods for non-experimental data," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 427-468, January.
  40. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? A Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 98/169, International Monetary Fund.
  42. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  43. Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & Mecagni, Mauro & Schadler, Susan, 2000. "Evaluating the effect of IMF lending to low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 495-526, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:03-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.