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IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte Balima

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2021-2022] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours)

  • Anna Sokolova

Abstract

We examine 994 estimates of the effects of IMF programs on economic growth as reported by 36 studies. The mean reported effect is positive, but the estimates vary widely. We use meta-regression analysis to disentangle sources of this variation, addressing model uncertainty with Bayesian Model Averaging and LASSO. We find that estimates vary systematically depending on data and methods employed by the researchers. Reported effects of IMF programs tend to be more positive for samples that include countries with high levels of institutional and economic development, when measured on longer horizons or obtained with the propensity score matching technique. Estimates appear to depend on the types of IMF programs being considered, as general resource programs tend to result in less favorable growth outcomes compared to programs that lend from concessional resources. Estimates tend to be lower when the underlying data includes more programs from the 1980s. Authors with IMF affiliation tend to report estimates that are somewhat higher than those of outside researchers.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte Balima & Anna Sokolova, 2021. "IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Post-Print hal-03557677, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03557677
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102741
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    Cited by:

    1. Gravina, Antonio Francesco & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2025. "‘What's your shape?’ A data-driven approach to estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Lijuan Wang & Yijia Hu & Yan Zhou, 2024. "Cross-border Commodity Pricing Strategy Optimization via Mixed Neural Network for Time Series Analysis," Papers 2408.12115, arXiv.org.
    3. Anna Sokolova, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Unemployment: a Meta-analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 813-846, December.
    4. Chahine, Salim & Chidambaran, N.K., 2023. "Do sovereign-bond issuers learn from peers?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Bomprezzi, Pietro & Marchesi, Silvia, 2023. "A firm level approach on the effects of IMF programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Amar Anwar & Colin F. Mang & Sonia Plaza, 2024. "Remittances and inequality: A meta‐analytic investigation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(6), pages 2664-2705, June.
    7. Arusha Cooray & Ibrahim Özmen, 2024. "Institutions and carbon emissions: an investigation employing STIRPAT and machine learning methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 1015-1044, September.
    8. Pinheiro, Alexandra & Sochirca, Elena & Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha, 2023. "Automation and off(re)shoring: A meta-regression analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    9. Bambe, Bao-We-Wal & Ouedraogo, Adama, 2025. "Public expenditure efficiency and foreign direct investment in developing countries," IDOS Discussion Papers 16/2025, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    10. Ayşe Y. Evrensel & Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2023. "Compliance with IMF conditions and economic growth," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4401-4420, December.
    11. Laure de Batz & Evžen Kočenda, 2024. "Financial crime and punishment: A meta‐analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1338-1398, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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