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‘What's your shape?’ A data-driven approach to estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve

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  • Gravina, Antonio Francesco
  • Lanzafame, Matteo

Abstract

The substantial literature on the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth—the so-called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)—has produced very mixed evidence. This largely depends on model and variable selection uncertainty. We address these issues relying on Bayesian Model Averaging techniques. Our results indicate that the EKC has an inverted-N shape, with almost all emerging economies on the upward segment of the curve displaying a positive association between per-capita GDP and CO2 emissions, and most advanced economies on the second downward segment of the curve. These findings are robust to the use of different measures of environmental pollution and (non-Bayesian) LASSO regression techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Gravina, Antonio Francesco & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2025. "‘What's your shape?’ A data-driven approach to estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:148:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325004761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108649
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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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