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The Effect of IMF Lending on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises

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  • Markus Jorra

    () (University of Giessen)

Abstract

This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We nd that IMF programs signifcantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to endogeneity bias as they are supported by speci cations that explain sovereign defaults and program participation simultaneously. Furthermore, IMF programs turn out to be especially detrimental to scal solvency when the Fund distributes its resources to countries whose economic fundamentals are already weak. Our evidence is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that debtor moral hazard is most likely to occur in these circumstances. Other explanations that point to the e ects of debt dilution and the possibility of IMF triggered debt runs, however, are also possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Jorra, 2010. "The Effect of IMF Lending on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201026, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Papi & Andrea F Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2015. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(3), pages 644-691, November.
    2. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 81-110, February.
    3. Bassanetti , Antonio & Cottarelli , Carlo & Presbitero, Andrea, 2016. "Lost and Found: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics," SEP Working Papers 2016/5, LUISS School of European Political Economy.
    4. Gurgen OHANYAN, 2013. "The Sway of IMF Policies on the Romanian Economy amid Global Financial Crisis," REVISTA ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC, Faculty of Administration and Public Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2013(21), pages 27-42, December.
    5. Eichler, Stefan, 2014. "The political determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 82-103.
    6. Doris A. Oberdabernig, 2018. "Determinants of IMF lending: How different is Sub-Saharan Africa?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 136-145.
    7. Ernesto Crivelli & Sanjeev Gupta, 2016. "Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 550-579, June.
    8. Eichler, Stefan & Hofmann, Michael, 2013. "Sovereign default risk and decentralization: Evidence for emerging markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-134.
    9. repec:eee:joecas:v:13:y:2016:i:c:p:100-113 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:bla:rdevec:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:451-474 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fink, Fabian & Scholl, Almuth, 2016. "A quantitative model of sovereign debt, bailouts and conditionality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 176-190.
    12. Li, Larry & Sy, Malick & McMurray, Adela, 2015. "Insights into the IMF bailout debate: A review and research agenda," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 891-914.
    13. Irina Andone & Beatrice D. Scheubel, 2017. "Memorable Encounters? Own and Neighbours' Experience with IMF Conditionality and IMF Stigma," CESifo Working Paper Series 6399, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Calixte Ahokpossi & Laurence Allain & Giovanna Bua, 2014. "A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior," IMF Working Papers 14/176, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Eichler, Stefan, 2015. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk-Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112877, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    IMF programs; Sovereign defaults; Bivariate probit; International Financial Architecture;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

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