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IMF-Supported Programs and Sovereign Debt Crises

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  • Hippolyte Balima

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours)

  • Amadou Sy

Abstract

This paper studies the role of IMF-supported programs in mitigating the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults in borrowing countries. Using a panel of 106 developing countries from 1970 to 2016 and an entropy balancing methodology, we find that IMF-supported programs significantly reduce the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults. This finding is robust to different specifications of the entropy balancing and alternative identification strategies. Our results suggest that a country that signs a program with the IMF typically experiences a slight improvement in its sovereign credit rating and a decrease in both government debt-to-GDP and fiscal deficit-to-GDP during the program period compared to the period before.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte Balima & Amadou Sy, 2021. "IMF-Supported Programs and Sovereign Debt Crises," Post-Print hal-03557672, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03557672
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-021-00135-7
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