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IMF-Supported Programs and Sovereign Debt Crises

Author

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  • Hippolyte Balima

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2021-2022] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours, International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Amadou Sy

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

Abstract

This paper studies the role of IMF-supported programs in mitigating the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults in borrowing countries. Using a panel of 106 developing countries from 1970 to 2016 and an entropy balancing methodology, we find that IMF-supported programs significantly reduce the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults. This finding is robust to different specifications of the entropy balancing and alternative identification strategies. Our results suggest that a country that signs a program with the IMF typically experiences a slight improvement in its sovereign credit rating and a decrease in both government debt-to-GDP and fiscal deficit-to-GDP during the program period compared to the period before.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte Balima & Amadou Sy, 2021. "IMF-Supported Programs and Sovereign Debt Crises," Post-Print hal-03557672, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03557672
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-021-00135-7
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    Cited by:

    1. KOUAKOU, Dorgyles C.M. & YEO, Kolotioloma I.H., 2023. "Can innovation reduce the size of the informal economy? Econometric evidence from 138 countries," MPRA Paper 119264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bao-We-Wal Bambe & Jeans-Louis Combes & Kabinet Kaba & Alexandru Minea, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Developing countries' Performance: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Working Papers hal-04638825, HAL.
    3. Coulibaly, Yacouba, 2024. "Resource-backed loans and ecological efficiency of human development: Evidence from African countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2023. "Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Obeng, Samuel & Tagem, Abrams & Were, Maureen, 2025. "Sovereign Default and Public Debt: What role for Fiscal Rules?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1567, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. World Bank, 2024. "Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of GovTech Platforms on Citizen Engagement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10716, The World Bank.
    7. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2023. "Tax revenue and mobile money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Bambe, Bao-We-Wal & Combes, Jean-Louis & Kaba, Kabinet & Minea, Alexandru, 2024. "Inflation targeting and firm performance in developing countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. Ndoya, Hermann & Kamguia, Brice & Nchofoung, Tii N., 2024. "Can the constitutional concentration of power be linked to Africa's energy poverty?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    10. Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "How do fiscal rules shape governments' spending behavior?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 322-341, April.
    11. Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado, 2024. "Impact of uncertainty on economic growth: The role of pro‐market institutions in developing countries," Post-Print hal-04725308, HAL.
    12. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Economic sanctions and sovereign debt default," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Lawrence Vorvornator, 2025. "‘‘Ogya’’ Syndrome: Exploring Impacts of Ghanaians' Admiration for International Migration on Sustainable Economic Development," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 17(2), pages 58-67.
    14. Kamran Abdullayev & Alla Tkachenko & Shorena Metreveli & Nino Maziashvili & Volodymyr Bichai, 2025. "Strategies for Enhancing Global Economic Resilience: A Focus on International Financial Structures and Their Impact," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 3-20.
    15. Ablam Estel Apeti & Kwamivi Gomado, 2023. "IMF conditionality and structural reforms: Evidence from developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-97, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Ablam Estel Apeti, 2022. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," Post-Print hal-03819779, HAL.
    17. Apeti, Ablam Estel, 2023. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Ma, Yong & Lv, Lin, 2023. "Financial development, financial instability, and fiscal policy volatility: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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