Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and a Case Study of Italy
High-debt countries may face the risk of self-fulfilling debt crises. If the public expects that in the future the government will be unable to roll over the maturing debt, they may refuse to buy debt today and choose to hold foreign assets. This lack of confidence may then be self-fulfilling. This paper argues that under certain conditions, the occurrence of a confidence crisis is more likely if the average maturity of the debt is short. Conversely, a long and evenly distributed maturity structure may reduce the risk. We consider the recent Italian experience from this perspective. In particular we ask whether recent developments in the market for government debt show signs of unstable public confidence and a risk premium.
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| Date of creation: | Oct 1989 |
| Handle: | RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:351 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ. Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801 Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
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References listed on IDEAS
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- F. Giavazzi & M. Pagano, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," Working Papers 73, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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