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Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management

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  • Francesco Giavazzi
  • Marco Pagano

Abstract

Under free capital mobility, confidence crises can result in devaluations even when fixed exchange rates are viable, if fiscal authorities can obtain temporary money financing. During a crisis, domestic interest rates increase reflecting the expected devaluation. Rather than selling debt at punitive rates, fiscal authorities will turn to temporary money financing, leading to equilibria with positive probability of devaluation. These equilibria can be ruled out if the amount of debt maturing during the crisis is sufficiently small- a condition that can be met by reducing the stock of public debt, lengthening its average maturity and/or smoothing the time distribution of maturing issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 2926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2926
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    1. Niepelt, Dirk, 2014. "Debt maturity without commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 37-54.
    2. Claessens, Stijn & Oks, Daniel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Interest rates, growth, and external debt : the macroeconomic impact of Mexico's Brady deal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1147, The World Bank.
    3. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," Research Department Publications 4032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Notes on Optimal Debt Management," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 2, pages 281-289, November.
    5. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2009. "Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 890-905, November.
    6. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Alesina, Alberto F & Prati, Alessandro & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and a Case Study of Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Kletzer, Kenneth, 2005. "International Financial Integration, Sovereignty, and Constraints on Macroeconomic Policies," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(S1), pages 165-186, October.
    9. Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1989. "Financial Integration, Liquidity and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 3088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Alessandro Missale & Francesco Giavazzi & Pierpaolo Benigno, "undated". "Managing the Public Debt in Fiscal Stabilizations: the Evidence," Working Papers 118, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    11. Missale, Alessandro & Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1994. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 309-319, March.
    12. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Miguel Messmacher & Mark Kruger, 2004. "Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs," IMF Working Papers 04/53, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Mats Persson & Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Debt, Cash Flow and Inflation Incentives: A Swedish Example," NBER Working Papers 5772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Gestión de la política fiscal en América Latina y el Caribe: volatilidad, propensión a los ciclos y solvencia limitada," Research Department Publications 4033, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    17. Oks, Daniel F., 1992. "Stabilization and growth recovery in Mexico : lessons and dilemmas," Policy Research Working Paper Series 833, The World Bank.
    18. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Cunha, Alexandre B., 2002. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy, Optimal Incomplete Taxation and Business Cycles," Insper Working Papers wpe_16, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    20. Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 4353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Deuda soberana: indexación y vencimiento," Research Department Publications 4460, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    22. Barry Eichengreen & Jurgen von Hagen, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Is There a Tradeoff between Federalism and Budgetary Restrictions?," NBER Working Papers 5517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Alexandre B. Cunha, 2006. "Implications of the Modigliani-Miller Theorem for the Study of Exchange Rate Regimes," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2006-03, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    24. Fausto Hernández Trillo & Alejandro Villagómez Amezcua, 2000. "La estructura de la deuda pública en México: Lecciones y perspectivas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2108, Inter-American Development Bank.

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