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Boon or Burden? The Effect of Private Sector Debt on the Risk of Sovereign Default in Developing Countries

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  • Celasun, Oya
  • Harms, Philipp

Abstract

We explore how the share of the private sector in total external debt affects perceived creditworthiness and the likelihood of sovereign default in developing countries. While there are theoretical arguments both in favor and against a stabilizing role of private-sector borrowing, the evidence clearly supports the notion that a greater share of the private sector in total external debt is associated with a reduced likelihood of sovereign default.

Suggested Citation

  • Celasun, Oya & Harms, Philipp, 2008. "Boon or Burden? The Effect of Private Sector Debt on the Risk of Sovereign Default in Developing Countries," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 16, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec08:16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    3. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2004. "The Politics Of Debt Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 4683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity; Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Jorra, 2011. "The Heterogeneity of Default Costs: Evidence from Recent Sovereign Debt Crises," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201151, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Philipp Harms & Mathias Hoffmann, 2011. "Deciding to Peg the Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: The Role of Private-Sector Debt," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 825-846, November.
    3. Jorra, Markus, 2012. "The effect of IMF lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 709-725.
    4. Hallak, Issam, 2013. "Private sector share of external debt and financial stability: Evidence from bank loans," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 17-41.
    5. Duygun, Meryem & Ozturk, Huseyin & Shaban, Mohamed, 2016. "The role of sovereign credit ratings in fiscal discipline," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 197-216.
    6. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G. Papaioannou & Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010; Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Krichene, Noureddine, 2017. "Financial Stability of Conventional and Islamic Banks: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Isaev, Mirolim & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The nexus of private sector foreign debt, unemployment, trade openness: evidence from Australia," MPRA Paper 79423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zeaiter, Hussein Zeaiter, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Defaults: Evidence using Extreme bounds Analysis," Working Papers 32/2013, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    10. Christoph Trebesch, 2009. "The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies; How Much is theprivate Sector Affected?," IMF Working Papers 09/29, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Investment; Sovereign Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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