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Does the IMF Influence Fiscal and Monetary Policy?

  • Axel Dreher

In theory, the IMF could influence fiscal and monetary policy via several channels, among them advice to policy makers, conditionality, and the moral hazard it induces with the borrowers. This article tries to disentangle those effects empirically. Using panel data for 98 countries over the period 1975-2000 it analyzes whether IMF involvement indeed influences fiscal and monetary policy in program countries. There is evidence that participation in IMF Standby and Extended Fund Facility arrangements improves economic policy. Money disbursed and the degree to which a program is implemented does not have any systematic influence. The same is true for future availability of resources as measured by exhaustion of a country's quota with the Fund. The final section discusses policy implications.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Policy Reform.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 225-238

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:225-238
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  1. Axel Dreher, 2004. "A Public Choice Perspective of IMF and World Bank Lending and Conditionality," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 119(3_4), pages 445-464, 06.
  2. Roland Vaubel & Axel Dreher & Uğurlu Soylu, 2007. "Staff growth in international organizations: A principal-agent problem? An empirical analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 275-295, December.
  3. Dreher, Axel, 2005. "IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 11, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  4. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "The Causes and Consequences of IMF Conditionality," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 26-54, May.
  5. Axel Dreher, 2003. "The influence of elections on IMF programme interruptions," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 101-120.
  6. Axel Dreher, 2004. "The Influence of IMF Programs on the Re-election of Debtor Governments," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 53-76, 03.
  7. Dollar, David & Svensson, Jakob, 1998. "What explains the success or failure of structural adjustment programs?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1938, The World Bank.
  8. Bernhard Boockmann & Axel Dreher, 2002. "The Contribution of the IMF and the World Bank to Economic Freedom," International Finance 0207001, EconWPA.
  9. Michele FRATIANNI & John PATTISON, 2007. "Who Is Runninc the IMF: Critical Shareholders or the Staff?," Working Papers 279, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  10. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
  11. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  12. Graham Bird & Thomas D Willett, 2004. "IMF Conditionality, Implementation and the New Political Economy of Ownership," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 423-450, September.
  13. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
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