Gatekeepers of the Market? IMF Surveillance and Sovereign Access to Global Finance

We study the effect of International Monetary Fund Article IV Public Information Notices on sovereign financing conditions. Using monthly data from 67 emerging market economies between 2004 and 2023, we estimate the causal impact of these surveillance disclosures through a dynamic panel matching framework that accounts for repeated observations. The release of Article IV statements leads to a statistically significant reduction in sovereign bond spreads and is associated with increased debt issuance and reserve accumulation, suggesting improved access to external finance. These effects are more pronounced when the surveillance message is optimistic and among countries more closely aligned geopolitically with major IMF shareholders, underscoring the importance of both tone and credibility context in shaping investor reactions. By isolating the influence of surveillance communications - independent of the Fund’s lending activities - this study contributes to the literature on the informational role of international organizations and the non-financial channels through which they affect sovereign risk and market behavior.