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Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality

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  • Oberdabernig, Doris A.

Abstract

Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982–2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000–09 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Oberdabernig, Doris A., 2013. "Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 113-142.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:46:y:2013:i:c:p:113-142
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.01.033
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:revint:v:13:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11558-018-9298-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Doris A. Oberdabernig, 2018. "Determinants of IMF lending: How different is Sub-Saharan Africa?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 136-145.
    3. Stubbs, Thomas & Kentikelenis, Alexander & Stuckler, David & McKee, Martin & King, Lawrence, 2017. "The impact of IMF conditionality on government health expenditure: A cross-national analysis of 16 West African nations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 220-227.
    4. repec:ers:ijebaa:v:iv:y:2016:i:2:p:80-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.
    6. Rickard, Stephanie J. & Caraway, Teri L., 2018. "International demands for austerity: examining the impact of the IMF on the public sector," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86636, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. repec:aka:aoecon:v:67:y:2017:i:3:p:311-332 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Axel Dreher & Katharina Michaelowa, 2008. "The political economy of international organizations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 331-334, December.
    9. repec:spr:revint:v:12:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11558-016-9250-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Christian Mumssen & Yasemin Bal Gunduz & Christian H Ebeke & Linda Kaltani, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries; Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term," IMF Working Papers 13/273, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Lang, Valentin, 2016. "The Economics of the Democratic Deficit: The Effect of IMF Programs on Inequality," Working Papers 0617, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    12. Hadi Esfahani & Seyed Karimi, 2014. "The Distributional Consequences of Economic Growth and Public Spending Programs in Iran," Working Papers 891, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    13. repec:rom:rampas:v:2016:y:2016:i:26:p:25-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:eee:socmed:v:187:y:2017:i:c:p:296-305 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    poverty and income distribution; IMF lending programs; model uncertainty; treatment effects; cross-country analysis; developing countries;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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