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Does the IMF's official support affect sovereign bonds maturities?

  • Aitor Erce

This paper looks at whether the tendency of some governments to borrow short term is reinforced by financial support from the International Monetary Fund. I first present a model of sovereign debt issuance at various maturities featuring endogenous liquidity crises and maturity mismatches due to financial under-development. I use the model to analyse the impact of IMF lending during debt crises on the sovereign's optimal maturity structure. Within the model, although IMF assistance is able to catalyse private flows, this provides incentives for government to issue larger amounts of short-term debt, making the roll-over problem larger. I take the model to the data and find support for the hypothesis that IMF lending leads countries to increase their short-term borrowing. Additionally, I do not find any positive effect of IMF lending on countries' ability to tap international capital markets. These results help explain why a catalytic effect of IMF lending has proved empirically elusive.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 128.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:128
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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Kletzer, Kenneth & Mody, Ashoka, 2005. "The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt84s7r0jf, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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  17. Aitor Erce, 2008. "A structural model of sovereign debt issuance: assessing the role of financial factors," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0809, Banco de Espa�a.
  18. Olivier Jeanne, 2009. "Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2135-48, December.
  19. Ales Bulir & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Atish R. Ghosh & Alex Mourmouras & A. Javier Hamann & Timothy D. Lane, 2002. "IMF-Supported Programs in Capital Account Crises; Design and Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 210, International Monetary Fund.
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  24. Bannier, Christina E., 2005. "Big elephants in small ponds: Do large traders make financial markets more aggressive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1517-1531, November.
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  29. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "Do IMF Programmes Have a Catalytic Effect on Other International Capital Flows?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 229-249.
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