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Vulnerability, Crisis and Debt Maturity: Do IMF Interventions Shorten the Length of Borrowing?

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Listed author(s):
  • Diego Saravia

Abstract

This paper studies how IMF lending affects countries’ bonds maturity. Debt maturity was claimed to be one of the causes of the crisis of recent years: Too much short-term debt would be the seed of self-fulfilling crisis. In turn, one of the goals of the IMF interventions is to prevent crises and to alleviate their effects once they occur. I find evidence that, on average, IMF interventions reduce countries’ debt maturity which would be a non-desirable effect. However, I also find evidence that the final effect depends on countries’ fundamentals. The IMF would make countries borrow at longer terms (or reduce less the maturity) when the fundamentals are relatively weak.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 697.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:697
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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2008. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 219-266 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Diamond, Douglas W., 1993. "Seniority and maturity of debt contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-368, June.
  3. Barry Eichengreen, 2003. "Restructuring Sovereign Debt," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 75-98, Fall.
  4. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1999. "Institutions, financial markets, and firm debt maturity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 295-336, December.
  5. Saravia, Diego, 2010. "On the role and effects of IMF seniority," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1024-1044, October.
  6. Ran Bi, 2006. "Debt Dilution and Maturity Structure of Sovereign Bonds," 2006 Meeting Papers 652, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
  8. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2004. "Do Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 247-264, 04.
  9. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  10. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Vreeland, 2008. "The political economy of IMF forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 145-171, October.
  11. Leung, Siu Fai & Yu, Shihti, 1996. "On the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 197-229.
  12. Deesomsak, Rataporn & Paudyal, Krishna & Pescetto, Gioia, 2009. "Debt maturity structure and the 1997 Asian financial crisis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 26-42, February.
  13. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2006. "Catalysing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programmes Work as Commitment Devices?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 843-867, 07.
  14. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
  15. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 111-125, March.
  17. Wasseem Mina & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2002. "IMF Lending, Maturity of International Debt and Moral Hazard," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0301, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  18. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1992. " Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's-Length Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1367-1400, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Luca Papi & Andrea F Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2015. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(3), pages 644-691, November.
  2. Aitor Erce, 2012. "Does the IMF´s official support affect sovereign bond maturities?," Working Papers 1231, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  3. Aitor Erce, 2012. "Does the IMF's official support affect sovereign bonds maturities?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 128, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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