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Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows towards emerging countries

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen Broto

    () (Banco de España)

  • Javier Díaz-Cassou

    () (Banco de España)

  • Aitor Erce-Domínguez

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of the volatility of different types of capital inflows to emerging countries. After calculating a variable that proxies capital flows volatility, we study its possible causality relations with a set of explanatory variables by type of flow through a panel data model. We show that in recent years the significance of global factors, beyond the control of emerging economies, has increased at the expense of that of country specific factors. In addition, various factors exhibit a non-robust effect on the volatility of the three different categories of capital flows, which poses additional challenges for policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Broto & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2008. "Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows towards emerging countries," Working Papers 0817, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0817
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/08/Fic/dt0817e.pdf
    File Function: First version, September 2008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    2. Aitor Erce, 2008. "A structural model of sovereign debt issuance: assessing the role of financial factors," Working Papers 0809, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2006. "An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 271-295, September.
    4. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    5. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    7. Carmen Broto & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2008. "The Sources of Capital Flows Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Emerging Countries," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 93-128, January-J.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aitor Erce, 2012. "Does the IMF's official support affect sovereign bonds maturities?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 128, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Michel Boutillier & Samira Hellou, 2017. "The impact of regulatory requirements on the banking flows to emerging countries," Post-Print hal-01549858, HAL.
    3. Aitor Erce, 2012. "Does the IMF´s official support affect sovereign bond maturities?," Working Papers 1231, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    4. Aitor Erce & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2015. "Catalytic IMF? a gross flows approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 254, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Nov 2015.
    5. Toro-Córdoba, Jorge Hernán & Mora-Quiñones, Rocío & Parra-Amado, Daniel, 2013. "Flujos de capitales, la crisis financiera internacional y los desbalances macroeconómicos," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.),Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 1, pages 1-51, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Enrique Alberola & Aitor Erce & José María Serena, 2012. "International reserves and gross capital flows. Dynamics during financial stress," Working Papers 1211, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    7. Paramita Mukherjee, 2011. "An exploration on volatility across India and some developed and emerging equity markets," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 18(2), pages 79-103, December.
    8. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Borkhuu Gotovsuren & Tsenddorj Dorjpurev, 2012. "Financial Contagion and Volatile Capital Flows," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ56.
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "Capital flows and emerging market economies," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 33, Autumn.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital fl ows; volatility; panel data; emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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