IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12243.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Cyclicality of International Public Sector Borrowing in Developing Countries: Does the Lender Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Galindo, Arturo
  • Panizza, Ugo

Abstract

This paper shows that international government borrowing from multilateral development banks is countercyclical while international government borrowing form private sector lenders is procyclical. The countercyclicality of official lending is mostly driven by the behavior of the World Bank (borrowing from regional development banks tends to be acyclical). The paper also shows that official sector lending to Latin America and East Asia is more countercyclical than official lending to other regions. Private sector lending is instead procyclical in all developing regions. While the cyclicality of official lending does not depend on domestic or international conditions, private lending becomes particularly procyclical in periods of limited global capital flows. By focusing on both borrowers and lenders' heterogeneity the paper shows that the cyclical properties of international government debt are mostly driven by credit supply shocks. Demand factors appear to be less important drivers of procyclical international government borrowing. The paper's focus on supply and demand factors is different from the traditional push and pull classification, as push and pull factors could affect both the demand and the supply of international government debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo, 2017. "The Cyclicality of International Public Sector Borrowing in Developing Countries: Does the Lender Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12243
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galindo, Arturo J. & Panizza, Ugo, 2018. "The cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries: Does the lender matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 119-135.
    2. Michaelowa, Katharina & Humphrey, Chris, 2011. "The Business of Development: Trends in Lending by Multilateral Development Banks to Latin America, 1980-2009," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 57, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    5. Jean-Charles Rochet, 2006. "Optimal Sovereign Debt: An Analytical Approach," Research Department Publications 4477, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Arze del Granado, Javier & Gupta, Sanjeev & Hajdenberg, Alejandro, 2013. "Is Social Spending Procyclical? Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-27.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    9. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
    10. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    12. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Mr. Antonio David & Carlos van Hombeeck, 2015. "Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/163, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2013. "Debt levels, debt composition, and sovereign spreads in emerging and advanced economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 518-547, AUTUMN.
    14. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa06-1, June.
    15. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26800, December.
    16. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    17. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, December.
    18. Dabla-Norris, Era & Minoiu, Camelia & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-61.
    19. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    20. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    21. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    22. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Serebrisky, Tomás & Frisancho, Verónica & Karver, Jonathan & Powell, Andrew & Margot, Diego & Suárez-Alemán, Ancor & Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Marzani, Matías & Berstein, Solang, 2018. "Saving for Development: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Save More and Better," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 7677.
    23. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    24. Ben Naceur, Sami & Bakardzhieva, Damyana & Kamar, Bassem, 2012. "Disaggregated Capital Flows and Developing Countries’ Competitiveness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 223-237.
    25. Chris Humphrey, 2017. "He who pays the piper calls the tune: Credit rating agencies and multilateral development banks," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 281-306, June.
    26. Micco, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo, 2006. "Bank ownership and lending behavior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 248-254, November.
    27. Michael Brei & Stephany Griffith-Jones & Jose Antonio Ocampo & Felipe Rezende & Alfredo Schclarek, 2017. "The Future of National Development Banks: Introduction," Post-Print hal-01589233, HAL.
    28. Hausmann Ricardo & Panizza Ugo, 2011. "Redemption or Abstinence? Original Sin, Currency Mismatches and Counter Cyclical Policies in the New Millennium," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-35, August.
    29. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    30. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2009. "Optimal Debt? On the Insurance Value of International Debt Flows to Developing Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 489-507, September.
    31. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    32. Maria Sole Pagliari & Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, 2017. "The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants," Departmental Working Papers 201710, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    33. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    34. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25823, December.
    35. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    36. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern97-1, June.
    37. repec:hrv:faseco:34729976 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Jean-Charles Rochet, 2006. "Optimal Sovereign Debt: An Analytical Approach," Research Department Publications 4477, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    39. Rodrik, Dani, 1995. "Why is there Multilateral Lending?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    41. William Easterly & Timothy Irwin & Luis Servén, 2008. "Walking up the Down Escalator: Public Investment and Fiscal Stability," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 23(1), pages 37-56, January.
    42. Humphrey, Chris & Michaelowa, Katharina, 2013. "Shopping for Development: Multilateral Lending, Shareholder Composition and Borrower Preferences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 142-155.
    43. Jean-Charles Rochet, 2006. "Optimal Sovereign Debt: An Analytical Approach," Research Department Publications 4477, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    44. Mark Gertler & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gert05-1, June.
    45. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    47. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky & Verónica Frisancho & Jonathan Karver & Andrew Powell & Diego Margot & Ancor Suárez-Alemán & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Matías Marzani & Solange Berstein & Marian, 2016. "Saving for Development: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Save More and Better," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 94597 edited by Eduardo A. Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky, February.
    48. Chris Humphrey, 2014. "The politics of loan pricing in multilateral development banks," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 611-639, June.
    49. John Clark & Nathan L. Converse & Brahima Coulibaly & Steven B. Kamin, 2016. "Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy," IFDP Notes 2016-10-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    50. repec:idb:brikps:7677 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Jeffrey Frankel & Christopher Pissarides, 2009. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran08-1, June.
    52. Mark Gertler & Kenneth Rogoff (ed.), 2005. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026257229x, December.
    53. Inter-American Development Bank, 2016. "Saving for Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-94929-8 edited by Eduardo Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky, April.
    54. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Introduction to "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 1-18, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Avellán, Leopoldo & Galindo, Arturo J. & Lotti, Giulia, 2021. "Sovereign external borrowing and multilateral lending in crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 206-238.
    2. Francesca Castellani & Marcelo Olarreaga & Ugo Panizza & Yue Zhou, 2018. "Investment Gaps in IDB Borrowing Countries," IHEID Working Papers 03-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Galindo, Arturo J. & Panizza, Ugo, 2018. "The cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries: Does the lender matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 119-135.
    4. Gurara, Daniel & Presbitero, Andrea & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2020. "Borrowing costs and the role of multilateral development banks: Evidence from cross-border syndicated bank lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Chiara Broccolini & Giulia Lotti & Alessandro Maffioli & Rodolfo Stucchi, 2019. "Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks," IMF Working Papers 2019/028, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fleiss, Pablo, 2021. "Multilateral development banks in Latin America: Recent trends, the response to the pandemic, and the forthcoming role," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 21, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Artecona, Raquel & Bisogno, Marcelo & Fleiss, Pablo, 2019. "Financing development in Latin America and the Caribbean: The role and perspectives of multilateral development banks," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 19, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    2. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-698, September.
    3. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2010. "International Government Debt," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 199, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    4. Michel Strawczynski & Joseph Zeira, 2013. "Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Emerging Countries: The Cycle is the Trend," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 11, pages 427-466, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Francesca Castellani & Marcelo Olarreaga & Ugo Panizza & Yue Zhou, 2018. "Investment Gaps in IDB Borrowing Countries," IHEID Working Papers 03-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    6. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2018. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Mr. Antonio David & Carlos van Hombeeck, 2015. "Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/163, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. João T. Jalles, 2020. "Explaining Africa's public consumption procyclicality: Revisiting old evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 297-323, August.
    10. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "The volatility impact of social expenditure’s cyclicality in advanced economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 26-40.
    12. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    13. Gheorghița DINCĂ & Marius Sorin DINCĂ & Bardhyl DAUTI & Mirela Camelia BABA & Cătălina POPIONE, 2020. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the European Union," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 75-96, March.
    14. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    15. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Gelos, Gaston & Gornicka, Lucyna & Koepke, Robin & Sahay, Ratna & Sgherri, Silvia, 2022. "Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    19. Graciela L Kaminsky, 2010. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies," Working Papers REM 2019/82, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; International Financial Institutions; International Government Debt; Capital Flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.