IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wbk/wbpubs/25823.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Global Economic Prospects, January 2017

Author

Listed:
  • World Bank Group

Abstract

Stagnant global trade, subdued investment, and heightened policy uncertainty marked another difficult year for the world economy. A subdued recovery is expected for 2017, with receding obstacles to activity in commodity exporters and solid domestic demand in commodity importers. Weak investment is weighing on medium-term prospects across many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Although fiscal stimulus in major economies, if implemented, may boost global growth above expectations, risks to growth forecasts remain tilted to the downside. Important downside risks stem from heightened policy uncertainty in major economies. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 25823, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:25823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25823/9781464810169.pdf?sequence=5
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Era Dabla-Norris & Jim Brumby & Annette Kyobe & Zac Mills & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Investing in public investment: an index of public investment efficiency," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 235-266, September.
    2. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2016. "Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-31.
    3. Sokoloff, Kenneth L., 1988. "Inventive Activity in Early Industrial America: Evidence From Patent Records, 1790–1846," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(04), pages 813-850, December.
    4. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter & Pedroni, Peter & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending rates in low-income countries: Heterogeneous panel estimates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 117-131.
    5. Zia Qureshi & Jose L. Diaz-Sanchez & Aristomene Varoudakis, 2015. "The Post-crisis Growth Slowdown in Emerging Economies and the Role of Structural Reforms," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 179-200, May.
    6. Alfaro, Laura & Hammel, Eliza, 2007. "Capital flows and capital goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 128-150, May.
    7. Nina Czernich & Oliver Falck & Tobias Kretschmer & Ludger Woessmann, 2011. "Broadband Infrastructure and Economic Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 505-532, May.
    8. Jonathan Munemo, 2014. "Business start-up regulations and the complementarity between foreign and domestic investment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 745-761, November.
    9. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    10. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2016. "The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates," Working Paper Series WP16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    12. Marco Arena & Serpil Bouza & Era Dabla-Norris & Kerstin Gerling & Lamin Njie, 2015. "Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics; Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 15/11, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Francisco H.G. Ferreira, 1995. "Roads to Equality: Wealth Distribution Dynamics with Public-Private Capital Complementarity," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 286, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    14. Christine Lewis & Nigel Pain & Jan Stráský & Fusako Menkyna, 2014. "Investment Gaps after the Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1168, OECD Publishing.
    15. César Calderón & Enrique Moral‐Benito & Luis Servén, 2015. "Is infrastructure capital productive? A dynamic heterogeneous approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 177-198, March.
    16. Miguel St. Aubyn & álvaro Pina & Filomena Garcia & Joana Pais, 2009. "Study on the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending on tertiary education," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 390, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    18. Eden, Maya & Kraay, Aart, 2014. ""Crowding in"and the returns to government investment in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6781, The World Bank.
    19. Ioannis N. Kessides, 2004. "Reforming Infrastructure : Privatization, Regulation, and Competition," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13525, April.
    20. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197, June.
    21. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    22. Stephane Straub, 2011. "Infrastructure and Development: A Critical Appraisal of the Macro-level Literature," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 683-708.
    23. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Tatiana Didier & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Lei Sandy Ye, 2015. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1529, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    25. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2014. "Institutional and structural determinants of investment worldwide," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 160-177.
    26. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2015. "The Global Trade Slowdown; Cyclical or Structural?," IMF Working Papers 15/6, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Did Wages Reflect Growth in Productivity?," Scholarly Articles 2794832, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    28. Maxime Leboeuf & Robert Fay, 2016. "What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?," Discussion Papers 16-5, Bank of Canada.
    29. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    30. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
    31. Lutfi Erden & Randall G. Holcombe, 2005. "The Effects of Public Investment on Private Investment in Developing Economies," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(5), pages 575-602, September.
    32. Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 45-62, September.
    33. Matthias Busse & José Luis Groizard, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Regulations and Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7), pages 861-886, July.
    34. Constantinescu, Cristina & Mattoo, Aaditya & Ruta, Michele, 2016. "Does the global trade slowdown matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 711-722.
    35. Fabiano Schivardi & Eliana Viviano, 2011. "Entry Barriers in Retail Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 145-170, March.
    36. Rajaram, Anand & Le, Tuan Minh & Biletska, Nataliya & Brumby, Jim, 2010. "A diagnostic framework for assessing public investment management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5397, The World Bank.
    37. Dasgupta,Basab & Lall,Somik V. & Lozano Gracia,Nancy, 2014. "Urbanization and housing investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 115004, The World Bank.
    38. Cavallo, Eduardo & Daude, Christian, 2011. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-81, March.
    39. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    40. Adrian Corcoran & Robert Gillanders, 2015. "Foreign direct investment and the ease of doing business," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(1), pages 103-126, February.
    41. Gee Hee Hong & Jaewoo Lee & Wei Liao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2016. "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown," IMF Working Papers 16/105, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    43. Patrice Ollivaud & Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2016. "Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1304, OECD Publishing.
    44. Erica Field, 2005. "Property Rights and Investment in Urban Slums," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 279-290, 04/05.
    45. Ashvin Ahuja & Alla Myrvoda, 2012. "The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment," IMF Working Papers 12/266, International Monetary Fund.
    46. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Republic of San Marino; Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/94, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
    48. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Did wages reflect growth in productivity?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 591-594.
    49. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    50. Herrera, Santiago & Pang, Gaobo, 2005. "Efficiency of public spending in developing countries : an efficiency frontier approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3645, The World Bank.
    51. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Republic of Lithuania; Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/138, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2003. "Foreign trade regimes and the FDI-Growth Nexus: a case study of Thailand," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 55-69.
    53. Glaeser, Edward L., 2008. "Cities, Agglomeration, and Spatial Equilibrium," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290444.
    54. Field, Erica Marie, 2005. "Property Rights and Investment in Urban Slums," Scholarly Articles 3634150, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    55. Jean-Marc Fournier & Åsa Johansson, 2016. "The Effect of the Size and the Mix of Public Spending on Growth and Inequality," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1344, OECD Publishing.
    56. Ismail, Normaz Wana & Mahyideen, Jamilah Mohd, 2015. "The Impact of Infrastructure on Trade and Economic Growth in Selected Economies in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 553, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    57. Stephen Everhart & Jorge Martinez- Vazquez & Robert McNab, 2009. "Corruption, governance, investment and growth in emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1579-1594.
    58. Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005. "Growing up with capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January.
    59. Joong Shik Kang & Wei Liao, 2016. "Chinese Imports; What’s Behind the Slowdown?," IMF Working Papers 16/106, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Reinikka, Ritva & Svensson, Jakob, 2002. "Coping with poor public capital," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 51-69, October.
    61. Ashvin Ahuja & Malhar S Nabar, 2012. "Investment-Led Growth in China; Global Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 12/267, International Monetary Fund.
    62. Getachew, Yoseph Yilma, 2010. "Public capital and distributional dynamics in a two-sector growth model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 606-616, June.
    63. Filippo Occhino & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Debt overhang and credit risk in a business cycle model," Working Paper 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    64. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2015. "Education Matters: Global Schooling Gains from the 19th to the 21st Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199379231.
    65. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    66. Andrew M. Warner, 2014. "Public Investment as an Engine of Growth," IMF Working Papers 14/148, International Monetary Fund.
    67. Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 513-518, August.
    68. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Winfried Polte, 2017. "Relevance of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) for Latin American Entrepreneurs," IZNE Working Paper Series 17/4, International Centre for Sustainable Development (IZNE), Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University of Applied Sciences.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:25823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Breineder). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.