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"Crowding in"and the returns to government investment in low-income countries

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  • Eden, Maya
  • Kraay, Aart

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of government investment on private investment in a sample of 39 low-income countries. Fluctuations in a predetermined component of disbursements on loans from official creditors to developing country governments are used as an instrument for fluctuations in public investment. The analysis finds evidence of"crowding in": an extra dollar of government investment raises private investment by roughly two dollars, and output by 1.5 dollars. To understand the implications for the return to public investment, a CES production function with public and private capital as inputs is calibrated. For most countries in the sample, the returns to government investment exceed the world interest rate. However, for some countries that already have high government investment rates, the return to further investment is below the world interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Eden, Maya & Kraay, Aart, 2014. ""Crowding in"and the returns to government investment in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6781, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6781
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abiad (ADB), Abdul & Furceri (IMF and University of Palermo), Davide & Topalova (IMF), Petia, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-240.
    2. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    3. Calderon, Cesar & Serven, Luis, 2014. "Infrastructure, growth, and inequality : an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7034, The World Bank.
    4. Bom, Pedro R.D., 2017. "Factor-biased public capital and private capital crowding out," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 100-117.
    5. Pedro R. D. Bom & Aitor Goti, 2018. "Public Capital and the Labor Income Share," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    6. Boehm, Christoph E., 2020. "Government consumption and investment: Does the composition of purchases affect the multiplier?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 80-93.
    7. Mr. Alejandro Izquierdo & Mr. Ruy Lama & Guillermo Javier Vuletin & Juan Pablo Medina & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Jorge Puig & Carlos Vegh, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 2019/289, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Andrew Berg & Edward F. Buffie & Catherine Pattillo & Rafael Portillo & Andrea F. Presbitero & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2019. "Some Misconceptions About Public Investment Efficiency and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(342), pages 409-430, April.
    9. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ruy E. Lama & Juan Pablo Medina & Jorge P. Puig & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 26478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Petrović, Pavle & Arsić, Milojko & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2021. "Increasing public investment can be an effective policy in bad times: Evidence from emerging EU economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 580-597.
    11. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2016. "Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-31.
    12. Popov, V., 2015. "Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rate? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015-2030," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 163-181.
    13. Getachew, Yoseph Y. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2015. "Productive government spending and its consequences for the growth–inequality tradeoff," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 621-640.
    14. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2015. "Economic growth and inequality: The role of public investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 204-221.
    15. Calderon,Cesar & Zeufack,Albert G., 2020. "Borrow with Sorrow ? The Changing Risk Profile of Sub-Saharan Africa's Debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9137, The World Bank.
    16. Popov, Vladimir, 2014. "Сохранит Ли Экономика Узбекистана Высокие Темпы Роста? Сценарии Развития В 2015-30гг [Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rate? Scenarios Of Economic Development In 2015-30]," MPRA Paper 59785, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2014.
    17. Popov, Vladimir, 2014. "Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rates? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015-30," MPRA Paper 59735, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Oct 2014.
    18. Moller, Lars Christian & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2017. "Explaining Ethiopia’s Growth Acceleration—The Role of Infrastructure and Macroeconomic Policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 198-215.
    19. Jariani, Farzaneh, 2021. "The Crowding Out and Crowding In Effects of the Government Fiscal Policy on the Real Estate Investment and Public Prosperity in Iran," MPRA Paper 105506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Popov, Vladimir, 2019. "Successes and failures of industrial policy: Lessons from transition (post-communist) economies of Europe and Asia," MPRA Paper 95332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Basu, Kaushik, 2014. "Fiscal policy as an instrument of investment and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6850, The World Bank.
    22. Chang Cheng-Wei & Lai Ching-Chong, 2017. "Macroeconomic (in)stability and endogenous market structure with productive government expenditure," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-16, April.
    23. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 25823, December.
    24. Moller,Lars Christian & Wacker,Konstantin M., 2015. "Ethiopia?s growth acceleration and how to sustain it?insights from a cross-country regression model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7292, The World Bank.
    25. Murat Ozbilgin, 2020. "Gains from Reducing the Implementation Delays in Public Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 815-847, December.

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    Keywords

    Debt Markets; Investment and Investment Climate; Access to Finance; Non Bank Financial Institutions; Emerging Markets;
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