IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/une/wpaper/52.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Have Collapses in Infrastructure Spending led to Cross-Country Divergence in Per Capita GDP?

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Rodriguez

Abstract

This paper explores whether the post-1980 decline in infrastructure investment in developing countries is a source of growing disparities in world per capita GDP. I start by reviewing the literature on the infrastructure-productivity link, arguing that a balanced reading of previous studies points to a significant effect of infrastructure provision on productivity. I then empirically study whether retrenchments in infrastructure provision have played a role in growing disparities using a data set of country-level infrastructure stocks for 121 countries since 1960. Cutbacks in infrastructure investment appear to be at most a minor cause of growing divergence in per capita incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Rodriguez, 2007. "Have Collapses in Infrastructure Spending led to Cross-Country Divergence in Per Capita GDP?," Working Papers 52, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  • Handle: RePEc:une:wpaper:52
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2007/wp52_2007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    2. Lars-Hendrik Roller & Leonard Waverman, 2001. "Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 909-923, September.
    3. David Alan Aschauer, 2000. "Do states optimize? Public capital and economic growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 34(3), pages 343-363.
    4. H. Ahmed & SM. Miller, 2000. "Crowding‐out and crowding‐in effects of the components of government expenditure," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 124-133, January.
    5. Nicola Persico & Alessandro Lizzeri, 2001. "The Provision of Public Goods under Alternative Electoral Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 225-239, March.
    6. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    7. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
    8. William Easterly & Luis Servén, 2003. "The Limits of Stabilization : Infrastructure, Public Deficits, and Growth in Latin America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14456, December.
    9. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "Why has productivity growth declined? Productivity and public investment," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
    10. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    11. César Calderón & Luis Servén, 2004. "The Effects of Infrastructure Development on Growth and Income Distribution," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 270, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
    14. Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Yi, Kei-Mu, 1996. "A Simple Time Series Test of Endogenous vs. Exogenous Growth Models: An Application to the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 126-134, February.
    15. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    16. José Pineda & Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Public Investment in Infrastructure and Productivity Growth: Evidence from the Venezuelan Manufacturing Sector," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-010, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    17. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    18. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-272, March.
    19. Hulten, Charles R. & Schwab, Robert M., 1993. "Infrastructure Spending: Where Do We Go From Here?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 46(3), pages 261-273, September.
    20. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    21. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "How does public infrastructure affect regional economic performance?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 34, pages 69-112.
    22. Peter Pedroni & David Canning, 2004. "The Effect of Infrastructure on Long Run Economic Growth," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    23. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2003. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 477-503, July.
    24. Blanca Sanchez‐Robles, 1998. "Infrastructure Investment And Growth: Some Empirical Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 98-108, January.
    25. Rodríguez, Francisco, 2006. "Cleaning Up the Kitchen Sink: On the Consequences of the Linearity Assumption for Cross-Country Growth Empirics," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3696, Inter-American Development Bank.
    26. Larson, David F. & Butzer, Rita & Mundlak, Yair & Crego, Al, 2000. "A Cross-Country Database for Sector Investment and Capital," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 371-391, May.
    27. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1994. "Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 12-21, February.
    28. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    29. Nadiri, M Ishaq & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 1994. "The Effects of Public Infrastructure and R&D Capital on the Cost Structure and Performance of U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 22-37, February.
    30. Demetriades, Panicos O & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 2000. "Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital: Evidence from 12 OECD Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 687-712, July.
    31. John A. Tatom, 1991. "Should government spending on capital goods be raised?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-15.
    32. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
    33. Alicia H. Munnell, 1992. "Policy Watch: Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 189-198, Fall.
    34. World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12426, December.
    35. Morrison, Catherine J & Schwartz, Amy Ellen, 1996. "State Infrastructure and Productive Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1095-1111, December.
    36. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    37. John A. Tatom, 1993. "Is an infrastructure crisis lowering the nation's productivity?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-21.
    38. Canning, David, 1999. "Infrastructure's contribution to aggregate output," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2246, The World Bank.
    39. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Ramirez, Maria Teresa, 2003. "Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 443-477, April.
    40. David Alan Aschauer, 1989. "Public investment and productivity growth in the Group of Seven," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 13(Sep), pages 17-25.
    41. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12425 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Hulten, Charles R. & Schwab, Robert M., 1993. "Infrastructure Spending: Where Do We Go From Here?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 46(3), pages 261-73, September.
    43. Pritchett, Lant, 1998. "Patterns of economic growth : hills, plateaus, mountains, and plains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1947, The World Bank.
    44. Shioji, Etsuro, 2001. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Convergence Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 205-227, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José Antonio Ocampo & Rob Vos, 2008. "Policy space and the changing paradigm in conducting macroeconomic policies in developing countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), New financing trends in Latin America: a bumpy road towards stability, volume 36, pages 28-45, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Tony Addison & Prathivadi Bhayankaram Anand, 2012. "Aid and Infrastructure Financing: Emerging Challenges with a Focus on Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-056, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Rob Vos & Marco V. Sánchez & Cornelia Kaldewei, 2010. "Latin America and the Caribbean’s challenge to reach the MDGs: financing options and trade-offs," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Marco V. Sánchez & Rob Vos & Enrique Ganuza & Hans Lofgren & Carolina Díaz-Bonilla (ed.), Public Policies for Human Development, chapter 2, pages 17-69, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Dmitriy, Skrypnik, 2020. "Инфраструктура И Экономический Рост. «Бюджетный Маневр» В России [Infrastructure and economic growth. "Budgetary maneuver" in Russia]," MPRA Paper 104920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Guerrero, Pablo & Lucenti, Krista & Galarza S., Sebastián, 2009. "Trade Logistic and Regional Integration in Latin America & the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2549, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Addison, Tony & Anand, Prathivadi Bhayankaram, 2012. "Aid and Infrastructure Financing: Emerging Challenges with a Focus on Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 056, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Pablo Guerrero & Krista Lucenti & Sebastián Galarza S., 2009. "Trade Logistic and Regional Integration in Latin America & the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9331, Inter-American Development Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silvia Bertarelli, 2006. "Public capital and growth," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 361-398.
    2. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    3. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    4. Stephane Straub, 2011. "Infrastructure and Development: A Critical Appraisal of the Macro-level Literature," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 683-708.
    5. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    6. Stephane Straub, 2008. "Infrastructure and Growth in Developing Countries: Recent Advances and Research Challenges," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 179, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    7. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: analisi della letteratura [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variable: a literature review]," MPRA Paper 88515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Timilsina,Govinda R. & Hochman,Gal & Song,Ze, 2020. "Infrastructure, Economic Growth, and Poverty : A Review," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9258, The World Bank.
    9. Wei Zou & Fen Zhang & Ziyin Zhuang & Hairong Song, 2008. "Transport Infrastructure, Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: Empirical Analysis of China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(2), pages 345-371, November.
    10. Poot, Jacques, 1999. "A meta-analytic study of the role of government in long-run economic growth," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa171, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Marie-Ange VEGANZONES-VAROUDAKIS, 2000. "Infrastructures, investissement et croissance : un bilan de dix années de recherches," Working Papers 200007, CERDI.
    12. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, Victoria, 2002. "Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-028/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Apr 2003.
    13. Macdonald, Ryan, 2008. "An Examination of Public Capital's Role in Production," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2008050e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    14. Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 2004. "Meta-analysis of the effect of fiscal policies on long-run growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-124, March.
    15. Calderon, Cesar & Serven, Luis, 2004. "The effects of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3400, The World Bank.
    16. Pereira, Alfredo M. & de Frutos, Rafael Flores, 1999. "Public Capital Accumulation and Private Sector Performance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 300-322, September.
    17. Arestoff, Florence & Hurlin, Christophe, 2006. "Estimates of government net capital stocks for 26 developing countries, 1970-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3858, The World Bank.
    18. Brian A. Mikelbank & Randall W. Jackson, 2000. "The Role of Space in Public Capital Research," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 23(3), pages 235-258, July.
    19. Jose da Silva Costa, 1998. "The productive role of public infrastructure: A critical review of recent literature," ERSA conference papers ersa98p95, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Rioja, Felix K., 2003. "Filling potholes: macroeconomic effects of maintenance versus new investments in public infrastructure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2281-2304, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    infrastructure; public capital; convergence; productivity; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:une:wpaper:52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aimee Gao (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desunus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.