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The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Peter A. Petri

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Michael G. Plummer

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

This Working Paper estimates the effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) using a comprehensive, quantitative trade model, updating results reported in Petri, Plummer, and Zhai (2012) with recent data and information from the agreement. The new estimates suggest that the TPP will increase annual real incomes in the United States by $131 billion, or 0.5 percent of GDP, and annual exports by $357 billion, or 9.1 percent of exports, over baseline projections by 2030, when the agreement is nearly fully implemented. Annual income gains by 2030 will be $492 billion for the world. While the United States will be the largest beneficiary of the TPP in absolute terms, the agreement will generate substantial gains for Japan, Malaysia, and Vietnam as well, and solid benefits for other members. The agreement will raise US wages but is not projected to change US employment levels; it will slightly increase "job churn" (movements of jobs between firms) and impose adjustment costs on some workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2016. "The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates," Working Paper Series WP16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp16-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    2. Mohammad Masudur Rahman & Chanwahn Kim & Prabir De, 2020. "Indo-Pacific cooperation: what do trade simulations indicate?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Kamal Halili Hassan & Muhammad Faliq Abd Razak & Rohaida Nordin & Rohani Abdul Rahim, 2018. "Malaysia with the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Aftermath of the United States Withdrawal From the TPPA," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(10), pages 868-880, October.
    4. Dan Ciuriak & Ali Dadkhah & Jingliang Xiao, 2016. "Better in than Out? Canada and the Trans-Pacific Partnership," e-briefs 236, C.D. Howe Institute.
    5. Dean Baker & David Rosnick, 2016. "Trade and Jobs: Can We Trust the Models?," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2016-05, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    6. Latorre, María C. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2018. "Stopped TTIP? Its potential impact on the world and the role of neglected FDI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 99-120.
    7. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 25823.
    8. Muhammad Aamir Khan & Naseeb Zada & Kakali Mukhopadhyay, 2018. "Economic implications of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on Pakistan: a CGE approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Chunding Li & Xin Lin & John Whalley, 2020. "Comparing Alternative China and US Arrangements with CPTPP," NBER Working Papers 26877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael J. Ferrantino & Maryla Maliszewska & Svitlana Taran, . "Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific," World Bank Other Operational Studies, The World Bank, number 33549.
    11. Robert Z. Lawrence & Tyler Moran, 2016. "Adjustment and Income Distribution Impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Working Paper Series WP16-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46925-0.
    13. Sheldon, Ian M. & Chow, Daniel C.K. & McGuire, William, 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Institutional Constraints on Moves to Protectionism: Multilateralism vs. Regionalism," 2018 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2018, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 266305, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Janine Dixon, 2017. "The Impact on Australia of Trump's 45 per cent Tariff on Chinese Imports," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(3), pages 266-274, September.
    15. Tsang, Cheuk Yan & Shakur, Shamim, 2017. "New Zealand’s Trade Prospects in an Uncertain Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Environment: Results from Gravity Model," 2017 Conference, October 19-20, Rotorua, New Zealand 269528, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    16. Jovanović, Miroslav, 2016. "Emerging Mega International Blocs: Limits and Prospects," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 271-316.
    17. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2016. "The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights," IMF Working Papers 2016/117, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Shepherd, Ben, 2019. "Mega-regional trade agreements and Asia: An application of structural gravity to goods, services, and value chains," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 32-42.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trans-Pacific Partnership; Free Trade Agreements;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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