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The effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Vietnam

Author

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  • Kikuchi, Tomoo
  • Yanagida, Kensuke
  • Vo, Huong

Abstract

While most studies conclude that Vietnam would have benefited greatly from the now suspended Trans-Pacific Partnership, the country nevertheless stands to gain from participation in other still promising regional frameworks, including the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific. This paper analyzes how Vietnam's economy is likely to be affected by these regional frameworks. We apply a static CGE model, incorporating the effects of capital accumulation, labor supply changes, and productivity growth stemming from trade liberalization. We also analyze “middle income trap” scenarios, in which Vietnam's growth factors fall below the full-potential level and draw policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Kikuchi, Tomoo & Yanagida, Kensuke & Vo, Huong, 2018. "The effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 4-19.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:4-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vietnam's economy; Mega-Regional Trade Agreement; Computable general equilibrium model; Structural change; Middle income trap;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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