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A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area

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  • Martin, Will

    () (The World Bank)

Abstract

This paper analyses the impacts of Vietnam's ASEAN Free Trade Area(AFTA) accession using a multi-region and muti-sector general equilibrium model. The static benefits of AFTA accession are likely to be relatively small. The gains from increased access to ASEAN makets would be small, and the would be offset by the costs of trade diversion. If Vietnam extends its AFTA commitments on a non-discriminatory basis, Vietnam's welfare would increase substantially. These gains are larger in part because the broader liberalization reduce the costly trade diversion and partly the resources are more efficiently allocate among Vietnam's industries. Although some currently protected industries would contract, the expansion of labor intensive manufacturing would bring greater benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Will, 2001. "A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 545-567.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin, Will J. & Warr, Peter G., 1994. "Determinants of agriculture's relative decline: Thailand," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(2-3), December.
    2. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J., 1997. "Preferential trading arrangements and industrial location," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 347-368, November.
    3. Martin,Will & Winters,L. Alan (ed.), 1996. "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586016, April.
    4. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J, 1999. "Agglomeration and Economic Development: Import Substitution vs. Trade Liberalisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 292-311, April.
    5. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, August.
    6. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    8. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    9. Martin, W. & Winters, L.A., 1995. "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 307, World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "Vietnam’s Accession to the WTO: Lessons from Past Trade Agreements," MPRA Paper 61679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. To, Minh Thu & Lee, Hiro, 2014. "Assessing the impacts of deeper trade reform in Vietnam in a general equilibrium framework," MPRA Paper 82271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jeong-Soo OH & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Developing Countries: Literature Survey," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 86-94, Fabruary.
    4. repec:eee:asieco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:4-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Houssein Boumellassa & Hugo Valin, 2009. "Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 13-42.
    6. Wilson, John S., 2002. "Liberalizing trade in agriculture : developing countries in Asia and the post-Doha agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2804, The World Bank.
    7. Auffret, Phillipe, 2003. "Trade reform in Vietnam : opportunities with emerging challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3076, The World Bank.
    8. Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J. & Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J., 2015. "Economic implications of a potential free trade agreement between India and the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7212, The World Bank.
    9. Nielsen, Chantal Pohl, 2002. "Social accounting matrices for Vietnam 1996 and 1997," TMD discussion papers 86, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN; Free Trade Area; Vietnam; CGE;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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