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Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective

  • Houssein Boumellassa
  • Hugo Valin

This paper aims to reassess the impact of Vietnam's accession to the WTO using a quantitative computable genera equilibrium (CGE) approach. First, a recursive dynamic approach helps to better handle the effects of the commitments in the context of a rapid economic growth. Second, thanks to the ex posf perspective, tariff line commitments are implemented at the 6-digits level of Harmonised System (HS6| using the official final schedule. Last, the WTO option is evaluated in a more realistic context where regional agreements involving Vietnam are represented. We show that WTO commitments signed in late 2006 by Vietnam for trade in merchandise should be positive for this economy, mainly through the benefits of the end of textile quotas from the United States. Welfare gains should represent around 1 percent of gross domestic product by 2015.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 118 ()
Pages: 13-42

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2009-2ta
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  1. Niimi, Yoko & Vasudeva Dutta, Puja, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 819-851.
  2. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & François Roubaud, 2008. "The Vietnam’s terms of accession and distributional impact of WTO membership," Working Papers DT/2008/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  3. Richard E. Baldwin & Rikard Forslid, 2010. "Trade Liberalization with Heterogeneous Firms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 161-176, 05.
  4. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Antoine Bouet, Yvan Decreux, Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral agricultural trade liberalization: The contrasting fortunes of developing countries in the Doha Round," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp060, IIIS.
  5. Jean-Raphael Chaponniere & Jean-Pierre Cling, 2009. "Vietnam's Export-Led Growth Model and Competition with China," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 101-130.
  6. Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 1999. "A Quantitative evaluation of Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2220, The World Bank.
  7. Philip Abbott & Jeanet Bentzen & Finn Tarp, 2007. "Vietnam’s Accession to the WTO: Lessons from Past Trade Agreements," Discussion Papers 07-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  8. Fujii, Tomoki & Roland-Holst, David, 2008. "How does Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization change the spatial incidence of poverty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4521, The World Bank.
  9. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
  10. Chaponniere, Jean-Raphael & Cling, Jean-Pierre & Zhou, Bin, 2008. "Vietnam Following in China?s Footsteps: The Third Wave of Emerging Asian Economies," Working Paper Series RP2008/84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  11. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2002. "Imperfections du marché du travail et modèles d’équilibre général calculables : une revue de littérature," Working Papers DT/2002/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4566 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Yvan Decreux & Hugo Valin, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 2007-15, CEPII research center.
  14. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2000. "The effects of the United States granting MFN status to Vietnam," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(3), pages 539-559, 09.
  15. Roland-Holst, David & Tarp, Finn & Dinh, Van An & Thanh, Vo Tri & Huong, Pham Lan & Dinh, Hien Minh, 2002. "Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020," MPRA Paper 29417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. David Vanzetti & Pham Lan Huong, 2006. "Vietnam's Trade Policy Dilemmas," Trade Working Papers 22036, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  17. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Francois Roubaud, 2009. "The Distributive Impact of Vietnam's Accession to the WTO," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 43-71.
  18. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2009. "Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 341-353, February.
  19. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "A Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Year 2003," MPRA Paper 29822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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