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Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective

  • Houssein Boumellassa
  • Hugo Valin

This paper aims to reassess the impact of Vietnam's accession to the WTO using a quantitative computable genera equilibrium (CGE) approach. First, a recursive dynamic approach helps to better handle the effects of the commitments in the context of a rapid economic growth. Second, thanks to the ex posf perspective, tariff line commitments are implemented at the 6-digits level of Harmonised System (HS6| using the official final schedule. Last, the WTO option is evaluated in a more realistic context where regional agreements involving Vietnam are represented. We show that WTO commitments signed in late 2006 by Vietnam for trade in merchandise should be positive for this economy, mainly through the benefits of the end of textile quotas from the United States. Welfare gains should represent around 1 percent of gross domestic product by 2015.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 118 ()
Pages: 13-42

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2009-2ta
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  1. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "A Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Year 2003," MPRA Paper 29822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Philip Abbott & Jeanet Bentzen & Finn Tarp, 2007. "Vietnam’s Accession to the WTO: Lessons from Past Trade Agreements," Discussion Papers 07-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2000. "The effects of the United States granting MFN status to Vietnam," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 539-559, 09.
  4. David Vanzetti & Pham Lan Huong, 2006. "Vietnam's Trade Policy Dilemmas," Trade Working Papers 22036, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  5. Chaponniere, Jean-Raphael & Cling, Jean-Pierre & Zhou, Bin, 2008. "Vietnam Following in China?s Footsteps: The Third Wave of Emerging Asian Economies," Working Paper Series RP2008/84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  6. Antoine Bouët & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2004. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," Working Papers 2004-18, CEPII research center.
  7. Roland-Holst, David & Tarp, Finn & Dinh, Van An & Thanh, Vo Tri & Huong, Pham Lan & Dinh, Hien Minh, 2002. "Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020," MPRA Paper 29417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Baldwin, Richard & Forslid, Rikard, 2004. "Trade Liberalization with Heterogenous Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2002. "Imperfections du marché du travail et modèles d’équilibre général calculables : une revue de littérature," Working Papers DT/2002/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  10. Fujii, Tomoki & Roland-Holst, David, 2008. "How does Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization change the spatial incidence of poverty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4521, The World Bank.
  11. Yoko Niimi & Puja Vasudeva Dutta & Alan Winters, 2003. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam," PRUS Working Papers 17, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex.
  12. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2003. "GTAP-DD: A Model for Analyzing Trade Reforms in the Presence of Duty Drawbacks," GTAP Technical Papers 1192, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  13. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  14. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & François Roubaud, 2008. "The Vietnam’s terms of accession and distributional impact of WTO membership," Working Papers DT/2008/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  15. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2002. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3312, The World Bank.
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