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Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective

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  • Houssein Boumellassa
  • Hugo Valin

Abstract

This paper aims to reassess the impact of Vietnam's accession to the WTO using a quantitative computable genera equilibrium (CGE) approach. First, a recursive dynamic approach helps to better handle the effects of the commitments in the context of a rapid economic growth. Second, thanks to the ex posf perspective, tariff line commitments are implemented at the 6-digits level of Harmonised System (HS6| using the official final schedule. Last, the WTO option is evaluated in a more realistic context where regional agreements involving Vietnam are represented. We show that WTO commitments signed in late 2006 by Vietnam for trade in merchandise should be positive for this economy, mainly through the benefits of the end of textile quotas from the United States. Welfare gains should represent around 1 percent of gross domestic product by 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Houssein Boumellassa & Hugo Valin, 2009. "Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 13-42.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2009-2ta
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2002. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3312, The World Bank.
    2. Yoko Niimi & Puja Vasudeva Dutta & L. Alan Winters, 2015. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 16, pages 333-365 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Antoine Bouët & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1329-1354, September.
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    5. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "Vietnam’s Accession to the WTO: Lessons from Past Trade Agreements," MPRA Paper 61679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2000. "The effects of the United States granting MFN status to Vietnam," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(3), pages 539-559, September.
    7. Yvan Decreux & Hugo Valin, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 2007-15, CEPII research center.
    8. Fujii, Tomoki & Roland-Holst, David, 2007. "How Does Vietnam's Accession to the World Trade Organization Change the Spatial Incidence of Poverty?," WIDER Working Paper Series 012, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2002. "Imperfections du marché du travail et modèles d’équilibre général calculables : une revue de littérature," Working Papers DT/2002/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    10. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Francois Roubaud, 2009. "The Distributive Impact of Vietnam's Accession to the WTO," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 43-71.
    11. Martin, Will, 2001. "A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 545-567.
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    15. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "A Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Year 2003," MPRA Paper 29822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4566 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. To, Minh Thu & Lee, Hiro, 2014. "Assessing the impacts of deeper trade reform in Vietnam in a general equilibrium framework," MPRA Paper 82271, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Model; trade policy; World Trade Organization; Vietnam;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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