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Export expansion and children’s school-work decision: Evidence from Vietnam

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  • Nguyen, Anh Phuoc Thien

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of export expansion on human capital investment in Vietnam induced by the U.S-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Using a rich household survey, I show that provinces more exposed to the tariff reduction from the BTA experienced a small decline in school attendance for children aged between 10–17 years old and a corresponding increase in children’s market work participation. This adverse BTA effect is on average stronger for boys, older children and households with low-educated head, indicating a dominating substitution effect that increases the opportunity costs of schooling. However, this masks a substantial heterogeneity across the gender-age dimension. Specifically, I find that while the BTA shock causes older boys to take market work for pay, it increases employment in household business for young girls and makes them substitute into domestic work.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Anh Phuoc Thien, 2025. "Export expansion and children’s school-work decision: Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325002561
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107261
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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