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Uneven benefits from trade liberalization: Tariff barriers and labor migration in China

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  • Wang, Jiang
  • Ji, Zhenhua
  • Liu, Kai

Abstract

This study examines how tariff barriers shape internal labor migration in China. While existing literature widely documents trade-induced disparities, less attention studies its impact on worker migrants. We introduce a theoretical framework to demonstrate the mechanisms and empirically test the predictions using 2000–2015 route-level variations. Foreign tariff reductions bolster regional exports through increased firm entry, survival of lower-productivity firms, export volume expansion, and enhanced export propensity, collectively driving wage growth and migration inflows. Conversely, import tariff cuts precipitate domestic market contraction through reduced settled-firm counts and market exit of lower-productivity producers, suppressing wages and triggering labor outflows. These findings shed new light on labor-migration responses to uneven trade benefits, offering policy insights for mitigating spatial inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jiang & Ji, Zhenhua & Liu, Kai, 2026. "Uneven benefits from trade liberalization: Tariff barriers and labor migration in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:156:y:2026:i:c:s026499932600012x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107483
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