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Exporting Out of Agriculture: The Impact of WTO Accession on Structural Transformation in China

Author

Listed:
  • Bilge Erten

    (Northeastern University)

  • Jessica Leight

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 on structural transformation at the local level, exploiting cross-sectional variation in tariff uncertainty faced by county economies pre-2001. Using a new panel of 1,800 Chinese counties from 1996 to 2013, we find that counties more exposed to the reduction in tariff uncertainty postaccession are characterized by increased exports and foreign direct investment, shrinking agricultural sectors, expanding secondary sectors, and higher total and per capita GDP. In addition, when labor substitutes from nonagricultural to agricultural production in counties exposed to positive trade shocks, agricultural output declines.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilge Erten & Jessica Leight, 2021. "Exporting Out of Agriculture: The Impact of WTO Accession on Structural Transformation in China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 364-380, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:2:p:364-380
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00852
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    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Shu & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2024. "Social identity and labor market outcomes of internal migrant workers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Zhu, Lianming, 2023. "The Effects of FDI Liberalization on Structural Transformation and Demographic Change: Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 16094, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Kiforenko, Oksana, 2023. "Correlation between the Greatest Agricultural Products Exporters to the EU: is Ukraine included?," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 15(3), September.
    4. Jie, Yangyang & Zhang, Peikang & Shen, Tiyan, 2025. "Fade into the Shadows: Adjustments in Administrative Divisions and Regional Disparities," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1589, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Hoyos, Mateo & Coronado, José Alejandro & Martins, Guilherme Klein, 2024. "Local and Spillover Effects of Trade on Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," SocArXiv rfqvt, Center for Open Science.
    6. Haichao Fan & Cui Hu & Faqin Lin & Huanhuan Wang, 2022. "Trade liberalization and decentralization of state‐owned enterprises: Evidence from China," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 224-246, January.
    7. Li, Rui & Yang, Huiting & Zhang, Jun, 2024. "Agricultural tax reform, capital investment, and structural transformation in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 509-522.
    8. Shi, Xinjie & Huangfu, Bingyu & Jin, Songqing & Gao, Xuwen, 2024. "Property rights, labor reallocation, and gender inequality in rural China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 325-342.
    9. Matthieu Crozet & Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2024. "Is There a Bright Side to the China Syndrome? Rising Export Opportunities and Life Satisfaction in China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 38(4), pages 708-740.
    10. Bilge Erten & Pinar Keskin, 2024. "Trade-offs? The Impact of WTO Accession on Intimate Partner Violence in Cambodia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 322-333, March.
    11. Feng, Shuaizhang & Lu, Jingliang & Shen, Leilei, 2024. "Hukou Matters: The heterogeneous local labor market effects of export expansions in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 321-340.
    12. Xiang, Xunyong & Liu, Ruier & Luo, Wenjie, 2024. "Pollution haven or pollution halo? Testing direct and spillover effects of FDI," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Feng, Jin & Wang, Zitai & Xie, Qiang, 2023. "Does trade liberalization improve child health? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Maryla Maliszewska & Deborah Winkler, 2024. "Leveraging Trade for More and Better Jobs," World Bank Publications - Reports 42148, The World Bank Group.
    15. Wenxiao Wang & Faqin Lin & Fengning Huan & Yanyun Li, 2024. "Labour market flexibility and domestic value‐added trade: Evidence from the hukou reform in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(6), pages 2400-2444, June.
    16. Zhao, Yu & Zhang, Ning, 2025. "Energy Trade Access and Market Monopoly: Evidence from China’s Power Sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    17. repec:osf:socarx:rfqvt_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Duan, Yuwan & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart & Yang, Cuihong, 2021. "How much did China's emergence as “the world's factory” contribute to its national income?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Gruber, Jonathan & Lin, Mengyun & Yi, Junjian, 2023. "The largest insurance program in history: Saving one million lives per year in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    20. Shuguang Liu & Xiaowen Tang & Yubin Zhao, 2024. "Global Value Chain Participation, Employment Structure, and Urban–Rural Income Gap in the Context of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, February.
    21. Zhou, Shen & He, Bing & Ni, He-yong-le & Pang, Shuqing, 2022. "Trade liberalization and regional labor market dynamics: Evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    22. Xiangjun Ma & Larry Qiu & Hyelim Son, 2024. "Industry selection of regional migrants in China: The role of urban industry structures of home and destination," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 1427-1459, April.
    23. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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