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The Distributive Impact of Vietnam's Accession to the WTO

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Pierre Cling
  • Mohamed Ali Marouani
  • Mireille Razafindrakoto
  • Anne-Sophie Robilliard
  • Francois Roubaud

Abstract

Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization in January 2007. The fast economic growth observed for the last decades has resulted in a strong reduction of poverty and increasing inequalities. This paper evaluates the potential distributive impact of the WTO accession using a macro-micro model. The latter couples a CGE model, including imperfect labour markets, with an accounting micro-simulation model. We do not limit ourselves to the tariff impact. We also evaluate the impact of improved market access and of increased foreign direct investment. Our simulations show that WTO accession will have mainly four types of distributional effects: job gains, especially in the manufacturing sector; growth in real wages, especially for unskilled workers; reduction of poverty; and increase in inequalities between rural and urban areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Cling & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Francois Roubaud, 2009. "The Distributive Impact of Vietnam's Accession to the WTO," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 43-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2009-2tb
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev118/ei118b.htm
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huu Chi Nguyen & Christophe J. Nordman & Fran�ois Roubaud, 2013. "Who Suffers the Penalty?: A Panel Data Analysis of Earnings Gaps in Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1694-1710, December.
    2. Karam Fida, 2010. "When Migrant Remittances Are Not Everlasting: How Can Morocco Make Up?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-38, July.
    3. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Francois Roubaud, 2010. "Assessing the Potential Impact of the Global Crisis on the Labour Market and the Informal Sector in Vietnam," Working Papers 05, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    4. Dwayne Benjamin & Loren Brandt & Brian McCaig, 2017. "Growth with equity: income inequality in Vietnam, 2002–14," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(1), pages 25-46, March.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of Aid for Trade flows on the Accession to the World Trade Organization," EconStor Preprints 261331, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Cling, Jean-Pierre & Razafindrakoto, Mireille & Roubaud, François, 2013. "Is the World Bank compatible with the “Socialist-oriented market economy”?," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 13.
    8. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of the Membership in the World Trade Organization and Aid for Trade Flows," EconStor Preprints 260562, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Sylvie Fanchette, 2014. "Quand l'industrie mondialisée rencontre l'industrie rurale : Hanoï et ses périphéries, Vietnam," Post-Print ird-01100941, HAL.
    10. Amèvi Rocard Kouwoaye, 2021. "GATT/WTO membership–poverty nexus: An unconditional quantile regression approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3389-3421, November.
    11. Jean-Pierre Cling & Hữu Chí Nguyễn & Mireille Razafindrakoto & François Roubaud, 2008. "Urbanization and access to labour market in Vietnam: Weight and characteristics of the informal sector," Post-Print hal-01664253, HAL.
    12. Houssein Boumellassa & Hugo Valin, 2009. "Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 13-42.
    13. Mathilde Douillet, 2012. "Trade policies and agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Comparative analysis in a Computable General Equilibrium framework," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/45eb019724s, Sciences Po.
    14. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor," MPRA Paper 40948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10805 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Thang T. Vo & Dinh X. Nguyen, 2021. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on Household Welfare: An Analysis Using Household Exposure-to-Trade Indices," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 503-531, January.
    17. Jean-Raphael Chaponniere & Jean-Pierre Cling, 2009. "Vietnam's Export-Led Growth Model and Competition with China," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 101-130.
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10758 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Chau Le & Aleksandar Šević & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes & Trong Ngo, 2022. "Bank efficiency in Vietnam: Do scale expansion strategies and non‐performing loans matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 822-843, January.
    21. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/45eb019724sn6sg9melpggksl is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10624 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; WTO; labour; inequalities; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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