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Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020

Author

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  • Roland-Holst, David
  • Tarp, Finn
  • Dinh, Van An
  • Thanh, Vo Tri
  • Huong, Pham Lan
  • Dinh, Hien Minh

Abstract

This study presents a set of assessments of the long term economic effects of Vietnam’s accession to the WTO. Generally speaking, our results indicate that Vietnam would benefit from accelerating its participation in more open multilateralism. However, it is also clear from our analysis that these benefits will remain modest in the absence of comprehensive and complementary domestic economic reforms. Passive external liberalization, even when coupled with determined domestic reform, is inferior to WTO participation combined with negotiated market access and other activist multilateral agreements. Finally, our analysis shows that capital insufficiency is a very serious constraint on Vietnamese economic growth and diversification. Capital market reform can play an essential role in dynamic and sustained economic development for the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland-Holst, David & Tarp, Finn & Dinh, Van An & Thanh, Vo Tri & Huong, Pham Lan & Dinh, Hien Minh, 2002. "Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020," MPRA Paper 29417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29417
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29417/1/MPRA_paper_29417.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaime De Melo & Arvind Panagariya & Dani Rodrik, 2015. "The New Regionalism: A Country Perspective," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 14, pages 323-357 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    3. Lluch, Constantino, 1973. "The extended linear expenditure system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 21-32, April.
    4. Kemp, Murray C. & Wan, Henry Jr., 1976. "An elementary proposition concerning the formation of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-97, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "Vietnam’s Accession to the WTO: Lessons from Past Trade Agreements," MPRA Paper 61679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Houssein Boumellassa & Hugo Valin, 2009. "Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 13-42.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vietnam; WTO; Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics

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