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Assessing the Impacts of Deeper Trade Reform in Vietnam in a General Equilibrium Framework

Author

Listed:
  • To Minh Thu

    (Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam)

  • Hiro Lee

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

Abstract

Vietnam is on the way to undertake deeper trade liberalisation, including both tariff reductions and reforms in other trade-related areas. In this paper, the impacts of Vietnam’s trade reform on its economic welfare and sectoral adjustments are assessed using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We consider the effects of goods and services trade liberalisation, an increase in foreign direct investment inflows, a reduction in administrative and technical barriers to trade, and a reduction in the trade and transport margins. When all effects are combined, Vietnam’s economic welfare is projected to increase by 8.4 per cent in 2020 compared with the baseline. Many manufacturing sectors would expand, whereas agricultural, minerals and fuel sectors would contract. The output expansion is most significant in the textiles and wearing apparel sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • To Minh Thu & Hiro Lee, 2017. "Assessing the Impacts of Deeper Trade Reform in Vietnam in a General Equilibrium Framework," OSIPP Discussion Paper 17E005, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  • Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:17e005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade reform; economic welfare; sectoral adjustments; Vietnam; CGE model;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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