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Impact of Liberalization and Improved Connectivity and Facilitation in ASEAN

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  • Itakura, Ken

Abstract

This study attempts to evaluate the potential economic effects of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation of trade in goods and services among the ASEAN member states (AMSs) by applying economy-wide simulation analysis based on a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We conduct a set of simulations to capture the effects of establishing free trade agreements (FTAs) in which the AMSs participate. Three key components affecting the impacts of FTAs are reduction of tariffs on goods, lowering of barriers to trade in services, and saving time-costs arising from logistics. Simulation results revealed that reducing trade barriers has a significantly positive impact on economic welfare. Although there are differences in the magnitude of positive contributions to welfare, all of the FTAs in which the AMSs participate tend to raise welfare. Among the FTAs examined in this study, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) leads to the largest positive effects on real GDP for most of the AMSs.

Suggested Citation

  • Itakura, Ken, 2014. "Impact of Liberalization and Improved Connectivity and Facilitation in ASEAN," Conference papers 332499, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332499
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    2. Zhenhua Chen & Xinmeng Li, 2021. "Economic impact of transportation infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 131-159, December.
    3. To, Minh Thu & Lee, Hiro, 2014. "Assessing the impacts of deeper trade reform in Vietnam in a general equilibrium framework," MPRA Paper 82271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hübler, Michael & Pothen, Frank, 2017. "Trade-induced productivity gains reduce incentives to impose strategic tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 420-431.
    5. Makmun Syadullah & Miftahudin - & Benny Gunawan Ardiansyah, 2017. "Analysis of The Potential Impact of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the ASEAN Member Countries," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 8(2), pages 28-37.
    6. Ponciano Intal & Narjoko Dionisius & Yoshifumi Fukunaga, . "Mid-Term Review of the Implementation of AEC Blueprint: Executive Summary," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2012-mtr edited by Ponciano Intal.
    7. Itakura, Ken, 2017. "CGE Simulation of the ASEAN Economic Community and RCEP under Long-term Productivity Scenarios," Conference papers 332896, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Yu Ri Kim & Yasuyuki Todo & Daichi Shimamoto & Petr Matous, 2018. "Are seminars on export promotion effective? Evidence from a randomised controlled trial," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 2954-2982, November.
    9. Ekaterina Y. ARAPOVA, 2017. "Ex-Post Analysis Of The Influence Of Tariff Liberalisation On Asean Exports," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 135-154.
    10. durongkaveroj, wannaphong, 2015. "The Next Chapter of ASEAN Economic Community through Integrating with the existing FTA partners (RCEP), Turkey, and Pakistan," MPRA Paper 63421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ponciano INTAL Jr, 2015. "AEC Blueprint Implementation Performance and Challenges: Trade Facilitation," Working Papers DP-2015-41, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    12. Yoshifumi Fukunaga, 2015. "ASEAN's Leadership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 103-115, January.
    13. Sanchita Basu Das, 2015. "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: new paradigm or old wine in a new bottle?," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(2), pages 68-84, November.
    14. Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Ponciano Intal & Fukunari Kimura & Phoumin Han & Philippa Dee & Narjoko Dionisius & OUM Sothea, . "ASEAN Rising: ASEAN and AEC Beyond 2015," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2013-asean-rising edited by Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Ponciano Intal, Jr. & Fukunari Kimura & Phoumin Han & Philippa Dee & Narjoko Di.
    15. Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Ponciano Intal & Fukunari Kimura & Phoumin Han & Philippa Dee & Narjoko Dionisius & OUM Sothea, . "ASEAN Rising: ASEAN and AEC Beyond 2015," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2013-rpr-01 edited by Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Ponciano Intal, Jr. & Fukunari Kimura & Phoumin Han & Philippa Dee & Narjoko Di.
    16. Said, Rashidi & Ismail, Normaz Wana, 2018. "The Impacts of Malaysian Free Trade Agreements on Margins of Trade," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 169-178.
    17. Li, Qiaomin & Scollay, Robert & Gilbert, John, 2017. "Analyzing the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on FDI in a CGE framework with firm heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 409-420.
    18. Rebecca Sta. Maria & Shujiro Urata & Ponciano S. Intal, 2017. "ASEAN @ 50 Volume 5: The ASEAN Economic Community Into 2025 and Beyond," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2017-asean@50-5 edited by Rebecca Sta. Maria & Shujiro Urata & Ponciano S. Intal.
    19. Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Ikumo Isono, 2013. "Taking ASEAN+1 FTAs towards the RCEP: A Mapping Study," Working Papers DP-2013-02, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    20. Misa Okabe, . "The Impact of ASEAN +1 FTAs on ASEAN's Trade," Chapters, in: Lili Yan Ing (ed.), East Asian Integration (First Edition), chapter 2, pages 25-66, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    21. Misa OKABE, 2015. "Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Trade in East Asia," Working Papers DP-2015-01, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    22. Mohamad D. Revindo & Christopher Gan, 2018. "Factors Affecting Variation in SMES' Export Intensity," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 201820, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised May 2018.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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