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Welfare Changes and Sectoral Adjustments of Asia-Pacific Countries under Alternative Sequencings of Free Trade Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Ken Itakura

    (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University)

  • Hiro Lee

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

Abstract

In this paper we compare welfare effects and the extent of sectoral adjustments of the member countries under alternative free trade agreement (FTA) sequencings in the Asia-Pacific region using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. If a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement under one sequencing and an East Asian FTA (EAFTA) under another sequencing will enter into force at the same time, followed by more enlarged FTAs, then a larger number of countries are expected to realize greater welfare gains under the Asia-track sequencing. However, given the uncertainty about the establishment of an Asia-wide FTA in the near future, the TPP-track sequencing appears to be an attractive option for most countries in the Asia-Pacific region. With respect to sectoral adjustments, there seem to be no significant differences among the alternative sequencings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2012. "Welfare Changes and Sectoral Adjustments of Asia-Pacific Countries under Alternative Sequencings of Free Trade Agreements," OSIPP Discussion Paper 12E005, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  • Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:12e005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Van Ha, Pham & Kompas, Tom & Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh & Long, Chu Hoang, 2017. "Building a better trade model to determine local effects: A regional and intertemporal GTAP model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-113.
    2. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2016. "Potential Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine Economy," Research Paper Series DP 2016-30, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    3. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2012. "China and the TPP: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved," NBER Working Papers 18090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kenichi Kawasaki & Badri Narayanan G & Houssein Guimbard & Arata Kuno, 2016. "Analysis of the Role of Tariff Concessions in East Asia," GRIPS Discussion Papers 16-21, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    5. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2014. "How Close is Asia to Already Being A Trade Bloc?," NBER Working Papers 20424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    7. Hirokazu Akahori & Daisuke Sawauchi & Yasutaka Yamamoto, 2017. "Measuring the Changes of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Caused by the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(5), pages 1-12, April.
    8. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2018. "The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-32.
    9. To, Minh Thu & Lee, Hiro, 2014. "Assessing the impacts of deeper trade reform in Vietnam in a general equilibrium framework," MPRA Paper 82271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Paramita Dasgupta & Kakali Mukhopadhyay, 2017. "The impact of the TPP on selected ASEAN economies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-34, December.
    11. Wainio, John & Dyck, John & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Mitchell, Lorrarine & Zahniser, Steven & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson F. & Burfisher, Mary E., 2014. "Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Economic Research Report 188429, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2016. "Potential Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine Economy," Discussion Papers DP 2016-30, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    13. Caesar Cororaton, 2016. "Potential Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine Economy," Working Papers id:11266, eSocialSciences.
    14. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2015. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Mega-Regional Free Trade Initiatives in the Asia-Pacific," OSIPP Discussion Paper 15E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    15. Chunding Li & Jing Wang & John Whalley, 2014. "Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Impacts from Possible Mega Trade Deals," NBER Working Papers 20425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sequencing; FTA; Asia-Pacific; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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