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The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future

  • Plummer, Michael G.

    ()

    (Johns Hopkins University SAIS–Bologna)

  • Wignaraja, Ganeshan

    ()

    (Asian Development Bank)

Bilateral and regional cooperation initiatives in Asia have been growing in importance over the last five years.These accords span the real and financial sectors; rather than following the more typical pattern of "trade first,money later", recent policy initiatives involve the simultaneous implementation of trade and monetary/financial accords. Given this sequence, is there a case for monetary union in East Asia? Is there a case for expanded free-trade areas (FTAs) in the region? This paper attempts to answer these questions using a variety of empirical techniques, including a Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) model, to evaluate the economics of monetary/financial integration and various configurations of FTAs in Asia. We conclude that, at present, the postsequencing of economic integration in Asia is developing such that trade agreements will ultimately complement the movement toward financial and monetary integration. While the political constraint on monetary union is real,it is argued that FTAs should help relax this constraint, adding a political complement to the trade complement.

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Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration with number 9.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0009
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  1. Ballard, Charles L. & Cheong, Inkyo, 1997. "The effects of economic integration in the Pacific Rim: A computational general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 505-524.
  2. Kalpana Kochhar & Prakash Loungani & Mark R. Stone, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis; Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 98/128, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, 01.
  4. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion; A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Michael G. Plummer, 2003. "Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 462-477, 08.
  6. Hertel, Thomas, . "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books 7685, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  7. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2006. "An Asian Monetary Union?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Michel Fouquin, 2006. "Economic Integration in Asia: Bilateral Free Trade Agreements Versus Asian Single Market," Working Papers 2006-15, CEPII research center.
  9. Rana, Pradumna B., 2006. "Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 2, Asian Development Bank.
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