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Dragon by the Tail, Dragon by the Head, Bilateralism and Globalism in East Asia

  • Roland-Holst, David
  • Tarp, Finn
  • Huong, Pham Lan
  • Thanh, Vo Tri

In this paper, we examine the bilateral implications of regional and global trade arrangements in the East Asian context. Using a dynamic global CGE model, we examine a variety of trade scenarios, in terms of bilateral relations between China and two of its most populace regional partners, Vietnam and Japan. Given the differences between the latter two economies, it might be reasonable to expect divergence in the bilateral outcomes. Our findings indicate that differences in initial conditions can indeed have a significant impact on bilateral adjustments, and that these can be adverse for some partners in the absence of policies that promote trade complementarity. By the latter we mean bilateral import and export patterns where the aggregate grows faster for each country than their total trade, but which help sustain bilateral balance of payments equilibrium.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29423.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29423
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  2. Fullerton, Don, 1983. "Transition Losses of Partially Mobile Industry-Specific Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 107-25, February.
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  8. Shujiro Urata & Hiroki Kawai, 2000. "Intrafirm Technology Transfer by Japanese Manufacturing Firms in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development, NBER-EASE Volume 9, pages 49-77 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Greenaway, David & Panagariya, Arvind, 1998. "Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1128-48, July.
  10. Hertel, Thomas, . "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books 7685, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  11. Kemp, Murray C. & Wan, Henry Jr., 1976. "An elementary proposition concerning the formation of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-97, February.
  12. C. Fred Bergsten & C. Randall Henning, 1996. "Global Economic Leadership and the Group of Seven," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 45.
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