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Global Agricultural Trade and the Doha Round: What are the Implications for North and South?

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  • John C. Beghin
  • David Roland-Holst
  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

Abstract

The next three-year World Trade Organization round has been set in motion by recent negotiations in Doha, Qatar. Among the most contentious issues in that meeting, and probably over the course of the next round, is direct and indirect producer support for agricultural exporters in the North and forgone production, employment, and trading opportunities for farmers in the South. Our results indicate that real commitments to reduce agricultural support in high-income countries will induce substantial changes in world food prices and domestic agricultural rates of return and output and will cause dramatic shifts in agricultural trade patterns. Total trade expands and real output, wages, and incomes in developing countries, especially among the rural poor, increase substantially. In particular, rural incomes in low- and middle-income countries increase by over $60 billion, a figure that comfortably exceeds even the most ambitious goals for increased development assistance and represents a substantial savings to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) taxpayers. At the same time, European Union and Japanese agricultural exports fall sharply and their imports rise. Other OECD countries see more balanced aggregate trade growth, but a number of strategic sectors are still adversely affected. These facts are likely to complicate negotiations in the Doha Round significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Beghin & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2002. "Global Agricultural Trade and the Doha Round: What are the Implications for North and South?," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 02-wp308, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ias:fpaper:02-wp308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kennedy, P. Lynn & Brink, Lars & Dyck, John H. & MacLaren, Donald, 2001. "Domestic Support: Issues And Options In The Agricultural Negotiations," Commissioned Papers 14622, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    2. John C. Beghin & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Sung Joon Park, 2003. "Food Security and Agricultural Protection in South Korea," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(3), pages 618-632.
    3. Xinshen Diao & Terry Roe & Agapi Somwaru, 2002. "Developing Country Interests in Agricultural Reforms under the World Trade Organization," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(3), pages 782-790.
    4. Bernard Hoekman & Kym Anderson, 2000. "Developing-Country Agriculture and the New Trade Agenda," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 171-180.
    5. Chad E. Hart & Bruce A. Babcock, 2001. "Implications of the WTO on the Redesign of U.S. Farm Policy," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 01-bp32, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    6. Martin, W. & Winters, L.A., 1995. "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 307, World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tedesco, Ilaria & Pelloni, Alessandra & Trovato, Giovanni, 0. "Oecd Agricultural Subsidies And Poverty Rates In Lower Income Countries," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3.
    2. Raihan, Selim & Razzaque, Mohammad A, 2007. "WTO and regional trade negotiation outcomes: quantitative assessments of potential implications on Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tyner, Wallace E. & Jacquet, Florence & Gray, Allan W., 2005. "Farm Income Stabilization: A Central Goal for American and European Policies," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24683, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Nabil Annabi & H. Khondker Bazlul & Selim Raihan & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwe, 2005. "Implications of WTO Agreements and Domestic Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh: Short vs. Long Run," Working Papers MPIA 2005-02, PEP-MPIA.
    5. van Schoor, Melt, 2005. "General Equilibrium Effects in the South African Maize Market: International Trade Simulations," Working Paper Series 15632, PROVIDE Project.
    6. Margaret S. McMillan & Alix Peterson Zwane & Nava Ashraf, 2007. "My Policies or Yours: Does OECD Support for Agriculture Increase Poverty in Developing Countries?," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 183-240 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Timothy A. Wise, "undated". "04-02 "The Paradox of Agricultural Subsidies: Measurement Issues, Agricultural Dumping, and Policy Reform"," GDAE Working Papers 04-02, GDAE, Tufts University.
    8. Raihan, Selim & Khondker, Bazlul Haque, 2010. "Doha Round Impacts on India: A Study in a Sequential Dynamic CGE Framework," MPRA Paper 37897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. BOUËT Antoine & BUREAU Jean-Christophe & DECREUX Yvan & JEAN Sébastien, "undated". "Is Northern Agricultural Liberalization Beneficial to Developing Countries?," EcoMod2003 330700021, EcoMod.
    10. Niven Winchester, 2006. "Liberating middle earth: How will changes in the global trading system affect New Zealand?," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 45-79.
    11. Pustovit, Nataliya & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2003. "Impact Of Agricultural Protection In Oecd-Countries On South African Agriculture," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25828, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Haggblade, Steven, 2004. "Successes in African Agriculture: Results of an Expert Survey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 745-766, May.
    13. Roland-Holst, David & Tarp, Finn, 2004. "New Perspectives on Aid Effectiveness," MPRA Paper 29823, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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