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Economic Growth, Energy demand and Atmospheric Pollution: Challenges and Opportunities for China in the future 30 years

Author

Listed:
  • Jie He

    () (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)

  • David Roland-Holst

    () (Mills College, UC Berkeley, and RDRC)

Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic CGE model, calibrated to detailed Chinese emissions data, to assess two important questions. What can we reasonably expect Chinese emissions trends to look like over the next three decades? Secondly, what would be the appropriate policy interventions to flatten Chinese emissions trajectories and reduce the risk of local, regional, and even global adversity? This research is original in its direct use of the new industrial sector-level emissions and energy using data from China to estimate the energy-specific emission effluent rate and its detailed treatment of policies taking account of the three main determinants of pollution intensity: growth, output composition, and technological change. Our results indicate that, without further effective emission control measures, China’s economic growth over the next two decades will contribute significantly to SO2 emission problems, in which the emission firstly increase from the rapid expansion of the transportation service sectors until 2018, then from the heavy industrialization process after 2018. With the potential technical progress, the emission burden will be centralized back to two energy sectors: electricity generation and petrol and coke refining during these two periods. Detailed examination of the structural and technological components of pollution shows that efficient pollution mitigation can be realized by focused abatement activities, cleaner production, and advances in cleaner fuel products and their use technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie He & David Roland-Holst, 2010. "Economic Growth, Energy demand and Atmospheric Pollution: Challenges and Opportunities for China in the future 30 years," Cahiers de recherche 10-11, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
  • Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:10-11
    as

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    File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-1011.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Global warming; CGE modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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