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Economic Growth, Energy demand and Atmospheric Pollution: Challenges and Opportunities for China in the future 30 years

  • Jie He

    ()

    (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)

  • David Roland-Holst

    ()

    (Mills College, UC Berkeley, and RDRC)

This paper uses a dynamic CGE model, calibrated to detailed Chinese emissions data, to assess two important questions. What can we reasonably expect Chinese emissions trends to look like over the next three decades? Secondly, what would be the appropriate policy interventions to flatten Chinese emissions trajectories and reduce the risk of local, regional, and even global adversity? This research is original in its direct use of the new industrial sector-level emissions and energy using data from China to estimate the energy-specific emission effluent rate and its detailed treatment of policies taking account of the three main determinants of pollution intensity: growth, output composition, and technological change. Our results indicate that, without further effective emission control measures, China’s economic growth over the next two decades will contribute significantly to SO2 emission problems, in which the emission firstly increase from the rapid expansion of the transportation service sectors until 2018, then from the heavy industrialization process after 2018. With the potential technical progress, the emission burden will be centralized back to two energy sectors: electricity generation and petrol and coke refining during these two periods. Detailed examination of the structural and technological components of pollution shows that efficient pollution mitigation can be realized by focused abatement activities, cleaner production, and advances in cleaner fuel products and their use technologies.

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File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-1011.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Paper provided by Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 10-11.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 26 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:10-11
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  1. Sébastien Dessus & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 1994. "Input-Based Pollution Estimates for Environmental Assessment in Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 101, OECD Publishing.
  2. Andreoni, James & Levinson, Arik, 2001. "The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 269-286, May.
  3. de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Product differentiation and the treatment of foreign trade in computable general equilibrium models of small economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 47-67, August.
  4. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September.
  5. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2007. "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6d28j8rg, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  6. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David, 1997. "The environment and welfare implications of trade and tax policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 65-82, February.
  7. Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der & Roland-Holst, David & Dessus, Sebastien & Beghin, John, 1998. "The interface between growth, trade, pollution and natural resource use in Chile: evidence from an economywide model," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 19(1-2), September.
  8. He, Jie, 2005. "Estimating the economic cost of China's new desulfur policy during her gradual accession to WTO: The case of industrial SO2 emission," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 364-402.
  9. Beghin, John & Dessus, Sebastien & Roland-Holst, David & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 1997. "The trade and environment nexus in Mexican agriculture. A general equilibrium analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 17(2-3), pages 115-131, December.
  10. Lluch, Constantino, 1973. "The extended linear expenditure system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 21-32, April.
  11. John Beghin & Sébastien Dessus & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 1996. "General Equilibrium Modelling of Trade and the Environment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 116, OECD Publishing.
  12. Ang, B. W. & Pandiyan, G., 1997. "Decomposition of energy-induced CO2 emissions in manufacturing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 363-374, July.
  13. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521266550 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Yang, Hao-Yen, 2001. "Trade liberalization and pollution: a general equilibrium analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in Taiwan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 435-454, August.
  15. Dessus, Sebastien & Bussolo, Maurizio, 1998. "Is There a Trade-off Between Trade Liberalization and Pollution Abatement?: A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment Applied to Costa Rica," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-31, February.
  16. de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Productivity and externalities : models of export led growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 387, The World Bank.
  17. Howe, Howard, 1975. "Development of the extended linear expenditure system from simple saving assumptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 305-310, July.
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