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The economic impact of the Trans†Pacific Partnership: What have we learned from CGE simulation?

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  • John Gilbert
  • Taiji Furusawa
  • Robert Scollay

Abstract

The Trans†Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, if were it to be successfully implemented, would be one of the largest regional agreements ever seen. It is the only exemplar to date of a “mega†regional†FTA for which negotiations have been successfully concluded, and a landmark in evolving approaches to Asia–Pacific integration. As such, quantitative assessments of its potential effects are of considerable interest. One of the most widely used techniques for evaluating the economic impact of regional trading agreements is numerical simulation with computable general equilibrium, or CGE, models. There have now been a large number of papers written that use CGE methods to analyse the potential economic impact of the TPP agreement under varying theoretical and policy assumptions. In this paper we provide a synthesis of the key results that have emerged from the literature, and introduce some new simulation results of our own to anchor the discussion.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gilbert & Taiji Furusawa & Robert Scollay, 2018. "The economic impact of the Trans†Pacific Partnership: What have we learned from CGE simulation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 831-865, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:41:y:2018:i:3:p:831-865
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12573
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Masudur Rahman & Chanwahn Kim & Prabir De, 2020. "Indo-Pacific cooperation: what do trade simulations indicate?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Pao‐Li Chang & Phuong T. B. Nguyen, 2022. "Global value chains and the CPTPP," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3780-3832, December.
    3. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2023. "Should the United States rejoin the Trans-Pacific trade deal?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 235-255, May.
    4. Jaewon Jung, 2022. "The Effects of China’s Participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): A Quantitative Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Chunding Li & Xin Lin & John Whalley, 2020. "Comparing Alternative China and US Arrangements with CPTPP," NBER Working Papers 26877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Akihito Asano & Michiru Sakane, 2023. "The welfare effects of partial tariff reduction in Japan," Working Papers e177, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    7. Itakura, Ken & Lee, Hiro, 2019. "Estimating the Effects of the CPTPP and RCEP in a General Equilibrium Framework with Global Value Chains," Conference papers 333031, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Vickie Siew Hoon Yew & Abul Quasem Al-Amin & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2020. "Labour Market Effects of Non-tariff Measures: A Computable General Equilibrium for the Food Processing Sector in Malaysia," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 63(3), pages 629-656, September.
    9. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2021. "Effects of the comprehensive and progressive agreement for trans‐pacific partnership," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1312-1337, May.
    10. Li, Qiaomin & Scollay, Robert & Gilbert, John, 2017. "Analyzing the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on FDI in a CGE framework with firm heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 409-420.
    11. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Yanagida, Kensuke & Vo, Huong, 2018. "The effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 4-19.
    12. Sen, Rahul & Narayanan, Badri & Srivastava, Sadhana & Khorana, Sangeeta & Iyer, Chidambaran, 2020. "The Long-term Impact of Trade Wars and ‘Make in India on the Indian Economy," Conference papers 330229, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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